[QUOTE=NBtarheel_33;324731]The date has come and gone, but the exponent hasn't...keeping fingers crossed...[/QUOTE]

You are correct....I tried to be nice my rearranging my worktodo to complete lower exponents first....

So, officially that assignment mentioned did NOT complete...

But on the other hand I did proclaim it would be Ivy's first completion that was the next prime....but alas...not to be...so maybe I had the exponent correct....Feb 12.

[QUOTE=davar55;324711]I'm curious about which guesses come nearest these averages.[/QUOTE]I missed that the first time around.
[QUOTE=Uncwilly;324745]62,714,889 on7/21/2010 (for all semi-serious guesses, including those carried over from the previous Guess Mxx threads)
64,987,482 on 12/27/2011 (for only those guesses since our last discovery)[/QUOTE]fatphil has come closest to both with 64,000,000 arriving on 6/30/2014, predicted on 9/12/2006

And the averages of those guesses that have not been surpassed by events:
66,135,910 on 11/7/2013

[QUOTE=davieddy;317542]2012-11-08 0.990

Expected time to next prime = 121/0.062 days = 1952 days.

I am reluctant to conclude that prospects are improving, because of the current focus on the tail of the LL wave: a distinctly short-term policy.

David[/QUOTE]2013-01-18 expected new primes <79.3M is 0.948
Expected time to next prime = 71/0.042 days = 1690 days.
[B]I am reluctant to conclude that prospects are improving, because of the current focus on the tail of the LL wave: a distinctly short-term policy.
[/B][QUOTE=jasong;324734]Maybe when people post their guesses, they should post how they came up with the guess. This would be different from crank postings because people wouldn't be claiming how awesome their method is, just how they came up with their guesses. If the guess(es) are correct, then we can re-visit their method.[/QUOTE]
OK: you're on:smile:
My guess is August 2017.
Exponent 79M

The reason is that I would bet evens (50/50) that these guesses will
be closer to the actual than everyone guessing differently and expect to make a profit.

David

[QUOTE=davieddy;325174]OK: you're on:smile:
My guess is August 2017.
Exponent 79M[/QUOTE]Let's see, you [URL="http://mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=176327&postcount=8"]earlier guessed that the number would be 60,000,000[/URL] and now you are changing it.
Also, the current best estimate for the P90-years for the range to 79.3M to go to zero is October 2019 (and dropping). If we expect 0.950 new primes in that range, then the likelihood of the next one showing up is, ~50% after 50% of the time it will take to complete the range. Half way from now to October 2019 is June 2016. So you are guessing long using your own basic logic. Also, the half-way point from the current lowest first LL to 79.3M is 61.8M. So, again your guess is too high.

[QUOTE=davieddy;325174]
The reason is that I would bet evens (50/50) that these guesses will
be closer to the actual than everyone guessing differently and expect to make a profit.[/QUOTE]
Correction:
To refute this, simply observe that the chance of the actual next Mprime exceeding the "expected" is 1/e while that of coming before it is 1 - 1/e.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;325196]Let's see, you [URL="http://mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=176327&postcount=8"]earlier guessed that the number would be 60,000,000[/URL] and now you are changing it.
[/QUOTE]

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSxFiM4[/u8]Ain't it funny how time slips away[/url]

If we find the next prime in a yrar or so, my 5 year old "guess" won't look too bad will it?

David

[QUOTE=jasong;324734]Maybe when people post their guesses, they should post how they came up with the guess. This would be different from crank postings because people wouldn't be claiming how awesome their method is, just how they came up with their guesses. If the guess(es) are correct, then we can re-visit their method.[/QUOTE]
Expected new primes <72M is currently 0.693.

The probability of no new primes <72M is e[SUP]-0.693[/SUP] = 0.5
(Poisson distribution).

The probability of no new primes before the expected number has dropped by 0.693 is 0.5. (Same reason).
At the current rate (as monitored by me for years), this will take about 3 years.

I hope these observations will inhibit the dafter guesses which abound in this thread.

D

I am sure the American government knows the 48th Mp but they don't want to tell it to you...

[QUOTE=davieddy;325548]I hope these observations will inhibit the dafter guesses which abound in this thread.[/QUOTE]

Does not every untested candidate have the same chance of being a MP as every other untested candidate?

[QUOTE=chalsall;325619]Does not every untested candidate have the same chance of being a MP as every other untested candidate?[/QUOTE]
Nope

[QUOTE=chalsall;325619]Does not every untested candidate have the same chance of being a MP as every other untested candidate?[/QUOTE]No, some are vastly superior. See below.
[QUOTE=LaurV;325618]I am sure the American government knows the 48th Mp but they don't want to tell it to you...[/QUOTE]American government does not have MP's, they use Senators and Representatives.:davieddy: