[QUOTE=Prime95;304534]I think you meant Caldwell not Crandall.[/QUOTE]
Of course not.
It was Chalsall

[QUOTE=davieddy;304572]

PS It takes years to appreciate the distinction between a log and an exponent.[/QUOTE]Not if you've seen a log-rolling contest.

[YOUTUBE]eusMzC7Rx7M[/YOUTUBE]

[QUOTE=cheesehead;304739]Not if you've seen a log-rolling contest.[/QUOTE]
No. But I've sawn a few.
There is a cheese rolliing contest (Gloucestershire?) that seems pretty dangerous to me.
They send some round(ish) ones down a steep hill, and some cretins attempt to follow them.

They occasionally sustain minor damage.

D

[QUOTE=davieddy;304748]
There is a cheese rolliing contest (Gloucestershire?) that seems pretty dangerous to me.
They send some round(ish) ones down a steep hill, and some cretins attempt to follow them.

They occasionally sustain minor damage.

D[/QUOTE]

[url]http://www.cracked.com/article_15209_the-10-most-insane-sports-in-world.html[/url]

[QUOTE=davieddy;304748]No. But I've sawn a few.
There is a cheese rolliing contest (Gloucestershire?) that seems pretty dangerous to me.
They send some round(ish) ones down a steep hill, and some cretins attempt to follow them.

They occasionally sustain minor damage.

D[/QUOTE]
I assume the ambiguity as to what's damaged is intentional. Either the cretins or the cheese wheels.

Need to Google cretins. I've heard the word and know it's an insult, but other than that, no idea.

[QUOTE=davieddy;304748]No. But I've sawn a few.
There is a cheese rolliing contest (Gloucestershire?) that seems pretty dangerous to me.
They send some round(ish) ones down a steep hill, and some cretins attempt to follow them.

They occasionally sustain minor damage.

D[/QUOTE]
Oh my, oh my, something is wrong with you... what's happening? you forget the [URL="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOyQBSMeIhM"]youtube link[/URL].. :razz:

My previous pessimistic predictions:

M48 77,000,000
M49 205,000,000 (an expectable big gap)

Add:

M50 280,000,000

Time frames: 12/31/2013, 12/31/2016, 12/31/2017

[QUOTE=davar55;307174]My previous pessimistic predictions:

M48 77,000,000
M49 205,000,000 (an expectable big gap)

Add:

M50 280,000,000

Time frames: 12/31/2013, 12/31/2016, 12/31/2017[/QUOTE]

Actually, on 12/25/2010 you predicted 52,100,000 would be the next at the end of 2011 (12/31/2011 as noted in my spreadsheet).
On 5/24/2011 you said that 77,000,000 would occur by June 2012 (6/1/2012).
And "For M49: (big gap to) ~205,000,000 by 2/2015 reached analytically"

[QUOTE=davieddy;304417]2012-07-10 1.052

42days/0.021 = 2000 days expected to the next discovery.
[/QUOTE]2012-11-08 0.990

Expected time to next prime = 121/0.062 days = 1952 days.

I am reluctant to conclude that prospects are improving, because of the current focus on the tail of the LL wave: a distinctly short-term policy.

David

[QUOTE=davieddy;317542]2012-11-08 0.990

Expected time to next prime = 121/0.062 days = 1952 days.

I am reluctant to conclude that prospects are improving, because of the current focus on the tail of the LL wave: a distinctly short-term policy.

David[/QUOTE]
I've never taken a statistics class, so please be kind, but that 1952 days marks the point where there's a precisely 50/50 chance that a prime will already have been found, correct?