BTW
 

William may have something helpful to say about all this.

Trust me. I'm a gynocologist.

David

[QUOTE=Dubslow;299138]I meant how did you derive this.[/QUOTE]

Which part of "derive" do you understand?

[QUOTE=science_man_88;299096]I don't know but his prediction puts it at about 391 years until it can be guaranteed. doh I doubt it ever really guarantees it but that's the first time it passes rounding of the 28 digits I have it showing.[/QUOTE]
Only two things are certain in this world:
Death and Taxes

D

BTW that was a big U turn of an edit you did!

[QUOTE=davieddy;299223]Only two things are certain in this world:
Death and Taxes[/QUOTE]
The version I learned was [i]Only two things are certain at this site: DEC and VAXes.[/i]

[QUOTE=xilman;299243]The version I learned was [I]Only two things are certain at this site: DEC and VAXes.[/I][/QUOTE]
Ant and Dec?
Shake and Vac?

[QUOTE=aketilander;293719][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]A summary of Davieddy's and others post above:[/FONT][/COLOR]

[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2001-04 we expected 1.64 (found 2)[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2004-07 we expected 1.28 (found 4)[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2007-10 we expected 0.69 (found 3)[/COLOR][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2008-10-25 1.747 [/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2008-12-03 1.719 Expected time to next prime was (39/0.028) 1393 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2009-10-25 1.528 Expected time to next prime was (326/0.191) 1707 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2010-05-11 1.420 Expected time to next prime was (198/0.108) 1833 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2010-10-25 1.342 Expected time to next prime was (167/0.078) 2141 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2010-11-22 1.328 Expected time to next prime was (28/0.014) 2000 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2010-12-25 1.314 Expected time to next prime was (33/0.014) 2357 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-01-11 1.306 Expected time to next prime was (17/0.008) 2125 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-02-05 1.295 Expected time to next prime was (25/0.011) 2273 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-03-07 1.281 Expected time to next prime was (30/0.014) 2143 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-05-26 1.244 Expected time to next prime was (80/0.037) 2162 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-06-22 1.231 Expected time to next prime was (27/0.013) 2077 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-07-15 1.221 Expected time to next prime was (23/0.010) 2300 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-09-10 1.195 Expected time to next prime was (57/0.026) 2192 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-10-16 1.177 Expected time to next prime was (36/0.018) 2000 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-12-20 1.149 Expected time to next prime was (65/0.028) 2321 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2012-01-31 1.131 Expected time to next prime was (42/0.018) 2333 days[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2012-03-21 1.107 Expected time to next prime is (50/0.024) 2083 days[/FONT][/COLOR]

or if we look at the whole period from 2008-10-15 -- 2012-03-21 the expected time to next prime is (1243/0.640) 1942 days.[/QUOTE]
Feel another update [url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeRa3RtBiIU]coming on strong[/url]

2012-05-29 1.073

With luck you can work it out by yourself by now.

D

Expected new Mprimes < 79M
 

[QUOTE=davieddy;300665]
2012-05-29 1.073[/QUOTE]
2012-07-10 1.052

42days/0.021 = 2000 days expected to the next discovery.

I am inceasingly concerned that multiple cores, much faster
CPUs (LL tests) and GPUs have not reduced this expected time.

This concern is only amplified by the fact that there is
a concerted, short-sighted effort to shorten the LL tail,
while NEW LL tests and the progress of the wavefront* are neglected.

LL/TF 53M-63M is in a [B]MESS.[/B]
(No names. No pack drill)

David

* In the words of a WW1 song:
"There was a front; but only God knows where".

[QUOTE=davieddy;304417]short-sighted effort to shorten the LL tail,[/QUOTE]What if the next prime to be known is in that tail? The work still has to be done, no?

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;304448]What if the next prime to be known is in that tail? The work still has to be done, no?[/QUOTE]
Yep.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;304448]What if the next prime to be known is in that tail?
[/QUOTE]
That remembered me when I was young and stupid and I put a clothes pin on the tail of the cat.. She was turning and turning and turning, like a tornado, and getting angrier and angrier and noisier and noisier... Someone you know?

I created a "countup" since last GIMPS prime on timeanddate.com.

I found these data:
[URL="http://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=175938&postcount=16"]http://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=175938&postcount=16[/URL]
[QUOTE]I have found it but strangely it shows that it was found on 2009-04-12 02:27 - that can't be secret for so long?[/QUOTE]

[URL="http://www.mersenne.org/"]http://www.mersenne.org/[/URL]
[QUOTE]On April 12th, the 47th known Mersenne prime, 242,643,801-1, a 12,837,064 digit number was found by Odd Magnar Strindmo from Melhus, Norway! [/QUOTE]

So I created the counter at location Melhus, Norway and starting April 12th 2009 at 4:27 am CEST (Central European Summer Time) which is 2:27 am UTC which primenet reported.


Counter:

[URL="http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?iso=20090412T0427&p0=2571&msg=Time+since+last+GIMPS+prime"]http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?iso=20090412T0427&p0=2571&msg=Time+since+last+GIMPS+prime[/URL]


Sadly its high, we passed 1,000 days long ago and 10[sup]8[/sup] seconds 28 days ago.