[QUOTE=Uncwilly;299025]
We have passed (average gap + 2.75 std dev) today.
[/QUOTE]
Have you visited Gamblers Anonymoius?

The probabililty of one or more prime before y years from now is
1 - e[SUP]-y/6[/SUP]

David

[QUOTE=davieddy;299027]
The probabililty of one or more prime before y years from now is
1 - e[SUP]-y/6[/SUP]

[/QUOTE]How was that derived? :-)

[QUOTE=cheesehead;299089]How was that derived? :-)[/QUOTE]

I don't know but his prediction puts it at about 391 years until it can be guaranteed. doh I doubt it ever really guarantees it but that's the first time it passes rounding of the 28 digits I have it showing.

[QUOTE=science_man_88;299096]I don't know but his prediction puts it at about 391 years until it can be guaranteed. doh I doubt it ever really guarantees it but that's the first time it passes rounding of the 28 digits I have it showing.[/QUOTE]

Hint: What t would you need for guaranteed success? That is, can you set the probability function equal to 1 and solve for t?

[QUOTE=cheesehead;299089]How was that derived? :-)[/QUOTE]
Poisson with an expected time of 6 years.

David

[QUOTE=davieddy;299131]with an expected time of 6 years.
[/QUOTE]
I think he meant how was that derived :wink:

[QUOTE=Dubslow;299132]I think he meant how was that derived :wink:[/QUOTE]
I think Richard will understand my sketchy answer, but since I like you, here it is (Hope Bob isn't reading this:)

Probability of finding a prime in dy years is dy/6.

Let P(y) be the probability of no prime before y years.

P(y + dy) = P(y)*{1 - dy/6)

dP/dy = -P/6

P = e[SUP]-y/6[/SUP]

David

Hint: think "exponential decay".

... where [i]6[/i] is a perfect number. :-)

[QUOTE=cheesehead;299136]... where [I]6[/I] is a perfect number. :-)[/QUOTE]Where 6 years is the expected time as monitored by me,
with the able assistance of Ake...

[QUOTE=davieddy;299135]

Probability of finding a prime in dy years is dy/6.[/QUOTE]

I meant how did you derive this. I am certainly well versed in Ordinary Differential Equations -- I just took the Partial Differential Equations final on Monday.

[QUOTE=Dubslow;299138]I meant how did you derive this. I am certainly well versed in Ordinary Differential Equations -- I just took the Partial Differential Equations final on Monday.[/QUOTE]
Then you probably know what a "wave" is:smile: