Expected new primes < 79.3M
 

[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]A summary of Davieddy's and others post above:[/FONT][/COLOR]

[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2001-04 we expected 1.64 (found 2)[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2004-07 we expected 1.28 (found 4)[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2007-10 we expected 0.69 (found 3)[/COLOR][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2008-10-25 1.747 [/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2008-12-03 1.719 Expected time to next prime was (39/0.028) 1393 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2009-10-25 1.528 Expected time to next prime was (326/0.191) 1707 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2010-05-11 1.420 Expected time to next prime was (198/0.108) 1833 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2010-10-25 1.342 Expected time to next prime was (167/0.078) 2141 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2010-11-22 1.328 Expected time to next prime was (28/0.014) 2000 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2010-12-25 1.314 Expected time to next prime was (33/0.014) 2357 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-01-11 1.306 Expected time to next prime was (17/0.008) 2125 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-02-05 1.295 Expected time to next prime was (25/0.011) 2273 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-03-07 1.281 Expected time to next prime was (30/0.014) 2143 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-05-26 1.244 Expected time to next prime was (80/0.037) 2162 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-06-22 1.231 Expected time to next prime was (27/0.013) 2077 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-07-15 1.221 Expected time to next prime was (23/0.010) 2300 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-09-10 1.195 Expected time to next prime was (57/0.026) 2192 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-10-16 1.177 Expected time to next prime was (36/0.018) 2000 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-12-20 1.149 Expected time to next prime was (65/0.028) 2321 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2012-01-31 1.131 Expected time to next prime was (42/0.018) 2333 days[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2012-03-21 1.107 Expected time to next prime is (50/0.024) 2083 days[/FONT][/COLOR]

or if we look at the whole period from 2008-10-15 -- 2012-03-21 the expected time to next prime is (1243/0.640) 1942 days.

Many thanks for this summary.
I'm sure the blessed Chalsall could display this graphically.
In case of confusing young Dubslow anymore,
I shall wait till I'm sober* before deliberating further.

David

*It may be some time.

[QUOTE=davieddy;293737]
At the risk of confusing young Dubslow any further,[/QUOTE]
Well, you've succeeded in confusing me as to when I was previously confused.
:surrender::geek::truck::lol:

[QUOTE=Dubslow;293740]Well, you've succeeded in confusing me as to when I was previously confused.
:surrender::geek::truck::lol:[/QUOTE]
Quick off the mark there.
I'm sure Retina, Ernst or other could invent a Python sketch here:smile:

David
x

[QUOTE=aketilander;293719][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]
[/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2012-03-21 1.107 Expected time to next prime is (50/0.024) 2083 days[/FONT][/COLOR]

or if we look at the whole period from 2008-10-15 -- 2012-03-21 the expected time to next prime is (1243/0.640) 1942 days.[/QUOTE]

I'll do my best to retain my sense of humour here (as UncWilly
advises me/us frequently).

The reason I estimate the time rather than the expo is
1) the actual expo could vary by ~15M
2) as you have diagnosed, the "expected time" is easy to estimate.

A glance at your/my table suggests that the Expected Time to
the next prime discovery is ~6 years.

The good news is that it has "bottomed out".

The bad is that maintaining this equates to a 20% in LL effort/year.

Now what the **** are GPUs and fast CPUs doing?
More in another thread.

David

[QUOTE=davieddy;294368]2) as you have diagnosed, the "expected time" is easy to estimate.

A glance at your/my table suggests that the Expected Time to
the next prime discovery is ~6 years.

The good news is that it has "bottomed out".[/QUOTE]

Well I think this gives a reasonable estimation but I would guess that the math guys could question it. I would say as long as the decrease is more or less linear the estimation would be valid, but lets say if the decrease would slow down we would underestimate the time and if the decrease would speed up we would overestimate the time. The variations during the last 4 years have not been very large so we could argue that its a rather good approximation to guess that the decrease is linear.

Yes I think at the moment it has "bottomed out" due to the speed jump of AVX.

I think your estimation (a very intelligent one) is the best we can have at the moment, but maybe one of the math guys can give an even better estimation?

[QUOTE=aketilander;294369]
I think your estimation (a very intelligent one) is the best we can have at the moment, but maybe one of the math guys can give an even better estimation?[/QUOTE]

I think you'll find Bob will simply tell you that my heuristics
have not yet been proven.
Little does he know:smile:

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9VLtelUUMk]Who one knows?[/url]

Senility is a bummer.
 

[QUOTE=davieddy;294373]
No [URL="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9VLtelUUMk"]one knows?[/URL][/QUOTE]
I meant:
[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBsWYYBnNK4&feature=related]Who knows where or when?[/url]

David

Don't get me started on the Spanish Inquisition, or I'll refer you to Ernst.

Flattery will get you anywhere
 

[QUOTE=aketilander;294369]
I think your estimation (a very intelligent one) is the best we can have at the moment, but maybe one of the math guys can give an even better estimation?[/QUOTE]

Try Paul.

[QUOTE=aketilander;293719][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]A summary of Davieddy's and others post above:[/FONT][/COLOR]

[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2001-04 we expected 1.64 (found 2)[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2004-07 we expected 1.28 (found 4)[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2007-10 we expected 0.69 (found 3)[/COLOR][/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2008-10-25 1.747 [/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2008-12-03 1.719 Expected time to next prime was (39/0.028) 1393 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2009-10-25 1.528 Expected time to next prime was (326/0.191) 1707 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2010-05-11 1.420 Expected time to next prime was (198/0.108) 1833 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2010-10-25 1.342 Expected time to next prime was (167/0.078) 2141 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2010-11-22 1.328 Expected time to next prime was (28/0.014) 2000 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2010-12-25 1.314 Expected time to next prime was (33/0.014) 2357 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-01-11 1.306 Expected time to next prime was (17/0.008) 2125 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-02-05 1.295 Expected time to next prime was (25/0.011) 2273 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-03-07 1.281 Expected time to next prime was (30/0.014) 2143 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-05-26 1.244 Expected time to next prime was (80/0.037) 2162 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-06-22 1.231 Expected time to next prime was (27/0.013) 2077 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-07-15 1.221 Expected time to next prime was (23/0.010) 2300 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-09-10 1.195 Expected time to next prime was (57/0.026) 2192 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-10-16 1.177 Expected time to next prime was (36/0.018) 2000 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana][COLOR=black]2011-12-20 1.149 Expected time to next prime was (65/0.028) 2321 days[/COLOR][/FONT]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2012-01-31 1.131 Expected time to next prime was (42/0.018) 2333 days[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2012-03-21 1.107 Expected time to next prime was (50/0.024) 2083 days[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2012-04-25 1.090 Expected time to next prime is (35/0.017) 2059 days[/FONT][/COLOR]

[/QUOTE]

(updated)

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;285197]petrw1 guessed 55,555,543 would drop on 5/5/2012
[YOUTUBE]angi1vwUkQc[/YOUTUBE][/QUOTE]Well we passed that.


davar55 on 5/24/2011 said that 77,000,000 (or there abouts) would be the next MP and the find date would be in 6/2012.
ET_ is next with 20/12/2012

We have passed (average gap + 2.75 std dev) today.

:busy: