[QUOTE=Prime95;291676]Somehow my guess of 40% likely to be prime became 100%. Very curious.[/QUOTE]That's what happens when the QM probability function collapses. Spooky action at a distance.

[QUOTE=aketilander;287874]A rough estimation of exptected new primes between 79.3M and 596M is 5.384
I used the this formula:

"1 chance in ( p / ( (b-1) x 1.803 )) of being prime"

from

[URL]http://mersennewiki.org/index.php/GIMPS_chances_of_finding_a_prime_number[/URL][/QUOTE]
With negligible LL-testing done, a simpler and more authorative
estimate is (log 596 - log 79.3)/log 1.476 = 5.18

Your formula probably overestimated because it assumes
P-1 has been done.

Similarly (log 79.3 - log 59.4)/ log 1.476 = 0.742
whereas the "classic summary" gives 0.391 + 0.356 = 0.747

David

@ Mods: please rescind my posting limit.
I have accumulated a considerable backlog of posts
demanding contentful reply.

Thanks Davieddy for the clarification! I just did a rough estimation. Thanks for clarifying the matters.

[QUOTE=aketilander;292205]Thanks Davieddy for the clarification! I just did a rough estimation. Thanks for clarifying the matters.[/QUOTE]
No Probs.
I never intentionally muddy the waters:smile:

David

[QUOTE=davieddy;292233]No Probs.
I never intentionally muddy the waters:smile:

David[/QUOTE]

Now you're just asking for trouble :razz:

Have I come to the right place?
 

[QUOTE=Dubslow;292235]Now you're just asking for trouble :razz:[/QUOTE]
:smile:

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oalGu81z0-Y]David[/url]

Why should we need a M48 ?!?!
We already know too many mersenne primes, 47 of them, and we only know 46 primes with over a million digits. So, we first must find a prime with more then a million digits...
To equate the score... :ick:

[QUOTE=LaurV;292898]Why should we need a M48 ?!?!
We already know too many mersenne primes, 47 of them, and we only know 46 primes with over a million digits. So, we first must find a prime with more then a million digits...
To equate the score... :ick:[/QUOTE]

Any more of this numerology and I'll report you to the dreaded Silverperson.

[QUOTE=LaurV;292898]Why should we need a M48 ?!?!
We already know too many mersenne primes, 47 of them, and we only know 46 primes with over a million digits. So, we first must find a prime with more then a million digits...
To equate the score... :ick:[/QUOTE]
Don't you worry for a second. The collective "we" will definitely do [I]that[/I] first.
(I have a logarithmic ruler in my hand and I am no afraid to use it! Stay back!)

[QUOTE=Batalov;292965]
(I have a logarithmic ruler in my hand and I am no afraid to use it! Stay back!)[/QUOTE]

Mine is 6 inches, but I don't use it as a rule.

[QUOTE=aketilander;287855]So Expected new primes < 79.3M

2012-01-31 1.131[/QUOTE]
2012-03-21 1.107
decrease = .024
days = 50 (Yep. Remembered the leap year:smile:)

Expected days to next prime = 50/.024 = 2083.

David