[QUOTE=Dubslow;272861]Lol I was reading the guesses at the beginning of this thread, and given the excellent perception of my hindsight, I laughed :)
But... 49.6M<M48<50.1M, in May of 2012. If you'll excuse my rather ambiguous notation. (Woe that is Indo-European languages! Woe that is Mersenne, that his last initial is the same as Million!)[/QUOTE]

Screw this. >60M in 2013. (Or found on a DC.)

Expected new primes < 79.3M
 

A summary of Davieddy's and others post above:

[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2001-04 we expected 1.64 (found 2)
2004-07 we expected 1.28 (found 4)
2007-10 we expected 0.69 (found 3)[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana] [/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2008-10-25 1.747
2008-12-03 1.719
2009-10-25 1.528
2010-05-11 1.420
2010-10-25 1.342
2010-11-22 1.328
2010-12-25 1.314
2011-01-11 1.306
2011-02-05 1.295
2011-03-07 1.281[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2011-05-26 1.244[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2011-06-22 1.231[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2011-07-15 1.221 Expected time to next prime is 2174 days[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2011-09-10 1.195 Expected time to next prime is 2192 days[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2011-10-16 1.177 Expected time to next prime is 2000 days[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]2011-12-20 1.149 Expected time to next prime is 2320 days[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana][/FONT][/COLOR]

Expected new primes < 596M ?
 

It would also be very nice if anyone could give a figure of the number of expected new primes < 596M. 596M is the largest exponent that can presently be handled by the current version of prime95.

Davieddy got at least some of his stats from [url]http://mersenne.org/report_classic/[/url] .
I'm sure someone around here know the formula for the expected primes.

Expected new primes < 79.3M
 

So Expected new primes < 79.3M

2012-01-31 1.131

Expected new primes < 596M
 

A rough estimation of exptected new primes between 79.3M and 596M is 5.384 so

Expected new primes < 596M is

6.515

I used the this formula:

"1 chance in ( p / ( (b-1) x 1.803 )) of being prime"

from

[URL]http://mersennewiki.org/index.php/GIMPS_chances_of_finding_a_prime_number[/URL]

[QUOTE=ixfd64;291608]Eliminating the result with the error code, that leaves M55253827. Unless the server completely removed the possible prime, then I think we have the candidate.[/QUOTE]

So it seems that petrw1 came about as close as anyone.
On 1/24/2011 he predicted 55,555,543 would be found prime on 5/5/2012. This is the first prediction in the future from yesterday's date.

As previously noted: davar55 predicted 12/31/2011 (on 12/25/2010) and davieddy predicted 1/1/2012

Christenson is also close 55,000,000 being found on 11/11/2011 (predicted 6/27/2011)

We were 2 days from having a gap of the average length plus 2.5 std dev.
1054 days.

Before you give me credit, let the DC go through...... but :smile: !

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;291670]So it seems that petrw1 came about as close as anyone.[/QUOTE]

Somehow my guess of 40% likely to be prime became 100%. Very curious.

[QUOTE=Prime95;291676]Somehow my guess of 40% likely to be prime became 100%. Very curious.[/QUOTE]

Didn't you know that once it's posted to the forum, it becomes gospel?

[QUOTE=Prime95;291676]Somehow my guess of 40% likely to be prime became 100%. Very curious.[/QUOTE]This thread is for fun only.:popcorn: It is not a press announcement.