[QUOTE=Uncwilly;271155]There are 19 days left until we match the longest gap in the GIMPS era. And 42 days from hitting the average gap + 2 std dev.
axn has our next closest (non-expired) guess, 68,407,496 on 10/1/2011 (hmmm that looks close.)

First time tests have now passed the lowest guess:
tom11784.....38,066,453 [strike]6/23/2007[/strike]

And these look not long for this world:
T.Rex...........38,500,000
PrimeCrazzy..39,999,999 [strike]9/1/2007[/strike]

And ET just went on holiday (maybe that will do it.)[/QUOTE]

I am going to give you the benefit of the (considerable) doubt,
and assume you understand the term "Poisson process".

The expected time to the next prime is ~6 years from the time
you are reading this. (At the current rate of testing).

David

[QUOTE=davieddy;271158]I am going to give you the benefit of the (considerable) doubt,
and assume you understand the term "Poisson process".

The expected time to the next prime is ~6 years from the time
you are reading this. (At the current rate of testing).

David[/QUOTE]Your post and that of Uncwilly are completely compatible. You are stating the currently expected time until the next discovery. He is reporting on historical data. Why do you need to give the benefit of any doubt?

Paul

Christmas is coming..
 

[QUOTE=xilman;271176]Why do you need to give the benefit of any doubt?

Paul[/QUOTE]

For the joy of giving?
Anyway there's many a gambler who's lost his shirt. Or does Legend have it?.

[QUOTE=davieddy;266538]Expected new primes <79[SIZE=3][B][COLOR=Red].[/COLOR][/B][/SIZE]3M:
2011-07-15 1.221

Decrease 0.023 in 50 days

Expected time to next prime is 2174 days[/QUOTE]

Fixed that. Nodigitty.

Thought I needed another drink for a mo then...
 

[QUOTE=ckdo;271303]Fixed that. Nodigitty.[/QUOTE]
Then I realized that some folks think 793M is a suitable
exponent to search for the next Mprime.

I'll get some more supplies in anyway;
Merry Christmas:smile:

David

[QUOTE=davieddy;266538]Expected new primes <79.3M:
2011-07-15 1.221

Decrease 0.023 in 50 days

Expected time to next prime is 2174 days[/QUOTE]

2011-09-10 1.195

Decrease 0.026 in 57 days

Expect next Mprime in 2192 days.

[QUOTE=davieddy;271364]Expect next Mprime in 2192 days.[/QUOTE]Aren't they randomly distributed? How can you predict the date so accurately?

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;271368]Aren't they randomly distributed? How can you predict the date so accurately?[/QUOTE]
Talking "Probability" here.

It's the mean of an exponential distribution.

50/50 one turns up within 4 years.

David

@ Paul
Are you starting to doubt your doubt re my doubt yet?

[QUOTE=davieddy;271364]Expect next Mprime in 2192 days.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;271368]Aren't they randomly distributed? How can you predict the date so accurately?[/QUOTE]

That's "expect" in the statistical sense of "expected value." Statisticians abuse the language to make complicated concepts sound simple. Think of "confidence" and "normal" for more examples.

[QUOTE=wblipp;271423]That's "expect" in the statistical sense of "expected value." Statisticians abuse the language to make complicated concepts sound simple. Think of "confidence" and "normal" for more examples.[/QUOTE]
Thanks William.
I was being slightly casual with the lingo, and I usually
try to convey precision by quoting a s.d. or using an appropriate
number of sig figs, but I couldn't be bothered to round the four digit
answer to 57/0.026 or whatever it was.

David

PS doesn't that word "exponent(ial)" get overworked around here?
It's especially confusing when you consider that "taking logs" is
the inverse of exponentiation!

[QUOTE=wblipp;271423]That's "expect" in the statistical sense of "expected value." Statisticians abuse the language to make complicated concepts sound simple. Think of "confidence" and "normal" for more examples.[/QUOTE]

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uprjmoSMJ-o]Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition[/url]