[QUOTE=Uncwilly;255181]

FWIW[/QUOTE]

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5M_Ttstbgs]For what it's worth[/url]

Damn close to my favourite record of all time.

David

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;255181]
2008-10-25 1.747
2008-12-03 1.719
2009-10-25 1.528
2010-05-11 1.420
2010-10-25 1.342
2010-11-22 1.328
2010-12-25 1.314
2011-01-11 1.306
2011-02-05 1.295
2011-03-07 1.281

FWIW[/QUOTE]
So we expected 0.466 primes in about 860 days.
So 0.001 prime in just under two days.
Undrstandably, the current expected discovery rate has
dropped slightly: I think 50M turned out to be a major
hurdle allocation-wise.
Note however that the current expected rate of a new
prime every 6 years is sustainable if we achieve a 20% increase
in computing per year. Not too much to expect from Mr Moore:smile:

David

Note also that the expected time before the next prime
is discovered is 6 years from NOW.

Some of the predictions on Chris Caldwell's instructive
"Where is the next MP?" page are beginning to look
distinctly optimistic ;)
(The same could be said of just about all the predictions
in this thread!)

We just past May 22. This was the date that using the 'forecast' function (in Excel) a new prime would be found. (All data in the post concerns only the GIMPS era).
In about 2 weeks we will hit June 5. That is the date of last discovery of a prime + the average gap + 1.5 std dev.

And we should be hitting a new prime at around 49,000,000 (according to my calcs). And we have just more that half of those LL'ed.

George is on vacation and having a problem with networking.

Watch out.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;262121]
(snip)
And we should be hitting a new prime at around 49,000,000 (according to my calcs). And we have just more that half of those LL'ed.

George is on vacation and having a problem with networking.

Watch out.[/QUOTE]
:devil: If I wanted to be paranoid, G isn't on vacation...he's visiting the discoverer of M48!
Crunch, crunch.....P-1 is knocking out candidates in the M53 range noticeably faster than my first LL tests...though my sample from 1 set of computers is pretty small, under 1000GHz days still.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;262121]We just past May 22.
...
And we should be hitting a new prime at around 49,000,000 (according to my calcs). And we have just more that half of those LL'ed.

George is on vacation and having a problem with networking.

Watch out.[/QUOTE]

Unfortunately, that's the gambler's fallacy, that a prime should be 'due' because of any reason. All you can do is say that right now, we can expect to have x primes by such-and-such date or exponent. As of when the last prime was found, apparently those were around May/June and 49,000,000. If, for simplicity, that was 12 months and 5M, now it's another ~>12 months and ~>5M before you expect one.

Just for fun.
49M 2013

[QUOTE=wreck;262157]Just for fun.
49M 2013[/QUOTE]

To quote Manuel cmd "Me no understand. I'm comer fromer Italia"

David

49M = M49????

Que?

[QUOTE=Mini-Geek;262147]49,000,000. If, for simplicity, that was 12 months and 5M, now it's another ~>12 months and ~>5M before you expect one.[/QUOTE]

For realism, make that 60 months and 25M

Poisson George Wagstaff

[QUOTE=davar55;243235]For M48: ~52,100,000 in 12/2011-2/2012.

For M49 (to jump the gun): sooner or later.[/QUOTE]

May I change my original guess and make
a real two-pronged guess?

For M48: ~77,000,000 by 6/2012 reached by luck

For M49: (big gap to) ~205,000,000 by 2/2015 reached analytically

No analytic reason, just intuited from the recent clustered values
and my estimate that the sequential ratios of consecutive
mersenne exponents hovers around 1.500000.

Dear Davar
 

With nutters like you around, who needs...

David

[QUOTE=wreck;262157]Just for fun.
49M 2013[/QUOTE]

I think he means M48 will be M(49 xxx xxx) and found in 2013, in a SWAG -- Sophisticated, Wild-Assed Guess

Can't say I even know a little, you can look at plots yourself and guess...I'd be surprised if M48 > M(60 000 000) and M49 > M(100 000 000), but I'm expecting half a dozen primes in that range....