Where is 'M45'? - poll #3
 

Based upon a suggestion, in the attempted use of group logic:
The poll is designed to narrow the range down for where M45 might be.
Then in a follow-up poll, narrow it down further, etc.

For the purpose of this poll, M45 is being defined as the next mersenne found.
Of course we are using the convention of using the exponent, without the 2^ -1.

No guesses, predictions, or reasoning in this thread. Only voting and comments about the poll.

The ranges listed are from the range in poll #2 that had the highest number of votes.

Vote only for the range that you [B]think[/B] is [B]closest[/B] to the actual value of M45, [URL="http://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=135673&postcount=8"]not to shape the data.[/URL]

Note: It is quite premisable to look at data and use reasoning to form your opinion and vote. (like checking the available candidates in the ranges listed).
This poll will close automatically.

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;136214]
The poll is designed to narrow the range down for where M45 might be.
Then in a follow-up poll, narrow it down further, etc.
[/QUOTE]

Do you know that there is about 15% chance that there is a Mersenne prime in that interval?!

[quote=R. Gerbicz;136219]Do you know that there is about 15% chance that there is a Mersenne prime in that interval?![/quote]
And about a 50% chance that there will be an earlier one.

I am not choosing the range. I personally don't care if there is 0.1% chance of a prime in the range. I am just facilitating the poll, someone else had suggested it.

[quote=Uncwilly;136214]Only voting and comments about the poll.[/quote]Yes, sir.

[quote] [URL="http://www.mersenneforum.org/showpost.php?p=135673&postcount=8"]not to shape the data.[/URL][/quote]Is there any way to prevent readers from viewing up-'til-then poll results before they themselves have noted?

[quote]Note: It is quite premisable to look at data[/quote]... [I]non-poll[/I] data, right?

[QUOTE=cheesehead;136272]Is there any way to prevent readers from viewing up-'til-then poll results before they themselves have noted?

... [I]non-poll[/I] data, right?[/QUOTE]Not that I am aware of.

Yes, inform yourself however you like, do your math off line. Consult chicken bones if you wish.

[quote=Uncwilly;136293]
[quote=cheesehead;136272]Is there any way to prevent readers from viewing up-'til-then poll results before they themselves have noted?

... [I]non-poll[/I] data, right?[/quote]
Not that I am aware of.[/quote]
Unfortunately, I didn't catch the typo in my post, which should have been:

"Is there any way to prevent readers from viewing up-'til-then poll results before they themselves have [B][U]v[/U][/B]oted?"

So, Uncwilly, what I meant to ask is whether there exists any option, [I]when you are creating the poll[/I], to specify that the "View Results" (or whatever it says) button NOT be displayed to readers who have not yet voted in that poll. I.e., the only readers who can see the current poll results (while the poll is active) are those who have already voted in the poll, each of whom were not able, before the time each voted, to know the vote totals by those who had voted before them.

If this is possible, it would ensure that each vote was "blind" (as you earlier said was desirable).

- - -

So my follow-up question, "... [I]non-poll[/I] data, right?", was whether or not you thought it permissable to look at the data which would be displayed if a non-voter clicked the "View Results" button for that poll. I.e., when you wrote "to look at data" in post #1, did you mean to include looking at the so-far results of this poll itself, by people who had not yet voted?

I have made my choice based on what I call "the crochet method" :wink:

[quote=paulunderwood;136340]I have made my choice based on what I call "the crochet method" :wink:[/quote]
That wouldn't be related to the "Cochet" method would it?

[QUOTE=cheesehead;136335]Is there any way to prevent readers from viewing up-'til-then poll results before they themselves have [B][U]v[/U][/B]oted?
- - -

So my follow-up question....
, did you mean to include looking at the so-far results of this poll itself, by people who had not yet voted?[/QUOTE]Again, not that I am currently aware of, here are the poll options:[CODE]Allow multiple choice: Give users the ability to select more than one answer
Make votes public: Displays all users who voted, and what choice they voted for.
Automatically parse links in text
Disable smilies in text[/CODE]

Any data [I]outside [/I]of [B]this[/B] poll is ok, the data concerning votes in this poll (#3) not.

[QUOTE=davieddy;136347]That wouldn't be related to the "Cochet" method would it?[/QUOTE]:crank:

:missingteeth: