Where is 'M45'? -poll 1
 

Based upon a suggestion, in the attempted use of group logic:
The poll is designed to narrow the range down for where M45 might be.
Then in a follow-up poll, narrow it down further, etc.

For the purpose of [U]this[/U] poll, M45 is being defined as the [U]next[/U] mersenne found.

Of course we are using the convention of using the exponent, without the 2^ -1.

No guesses, predictions, or reasoning in this thread. Only voting and comments about the poll.

There are no poll options. How is one to vote?

[QUOTE=retina;134843]There are no poll options. How is one to vote?[/QUOTE]Scroll up, it works fine.

Above 79,300,000

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;134844]Scroll up, it works fine.[/QUOTE]Strange, I didn't see any poll there before, but I see it now. Maybe my browser is (sometimes) not 100% compatible with this forum.

once this poll is completed are we gonna do a poll on different parts of the range chosen

A recommendation: I find it helpful to read Uncwilly's comments in the introductory post carefully. :smile:

[quote=retina;134850]Strange, I didn't see any poll there before, but I see it now. Maybe my browser is (sometimes) not 100% compatible with this forum.[/quote]
IIRC from the last time I made a poll, the poster first writes his post's words, indicates it will have a poll, then submits it, then it asks him for the details of the polls. Maybe you happened to catch it between him submitting the text and him submitting the poll's info.

[QUOTE=Mini-Geek;134856]IIRC from the last time I made a poll, the poster first writes his post's words, indicates it will have a poll, then submits it, then it asks him for the details of the polls. Maybe you happened to catch it between him submitting the text and him submitting the poll's info.[/QUOTE]Thanks, that would explain it. Looks like I was too impatient.

I have a cunning plan...
 

I will start testing a candidate for 'M45'. While I am testing, it I will create 50 new forum accounts and force the polls to home-in on my number, thus proving it prime. I will get some more quadies with the money.

[quote=Uncwilly;134842]
No guesses, predictions, or reasoning in this thread. Only voting and comments about the poll.[/quote]

That restriction is frustrating!
By way of a comment on the poll I would
compliment you on a sensible selection of ranges.
Comments on the results so far have to be censored
to prevent prejudicing future voters.

David

Actually I am quite mystified as to what this poll achieves.

If, for example, I decide that M45 is in a range that only very few people have voted for, then what? Once the next poll begins am I supposed to re-think my guess in line with the masses? Is my guess suddenly less valid because everyone else says it is not in that range? Am I even allowed to vote again (not that I would want to since my guess is not listed anymore)?

Towards the end of the poll, and assuming that 1) everyone sticks with their initial guess and 2) those people decide not to vote again (since their guess is not in the new poll), then all you get is the same voters voting in the ever smaller sub-ranges until some narrow band is left with 2 votes and becomes the "winner".

To the original poster: Do tell as to what one expects to happen here when extrapolated to the end?

I guess it's like one of those ESP experiments.

[quote=retina;134934]Actually I am quite mystified as to what this poll achieves.

[/quote]
Sounds like you opted for a minority answer:smile:

[QUOTE=davieddy;134942]Sounds like you opted for a minority answer:smile:[/QUOTE]My post is just an example. I'm not saying where I voted this round, but I think it is almost certain that nearly everyone (except the last two "lucky" people) will face the situation of being in the minority at some point.

[quote=retina;134946]My post is just an example. I'm not saying where I voted this round, but I think it is almost certain that nearly everyone (except the last two "lucky" people) will face the situation of being in the minority at some point.[/quote]
Well before voting, I mentally (at least) compute the most
probable range. You make your own luck.

[QUOTE=jrk;134845][SPOILER]Above 79,300,000[/SPOILER][/QUOTE]The is the [URL="http://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=6334"]Predict M45[/URL] thread, post guesses there. In a couple of days, I will post over there some info on the current guesses over there.


BTW, I think that we should wait for the polle to be 1 week old before starting the second poll.

[quote=Uncwilly;134976]The is the [URL="http://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=6334"]Predict M45[/URL] thread, post guesses there.[/quote]I know.

You wrote in the OP:[quote] No guesses, predictions, or reasoning in this thread. Only voting and comments about the poll.[/quote]So I made my [U][B]vote[/B][/U] and posted it (it is a poll option). You didn't say votes had to be secret?

But I did post my specific guess in that other thread, too. : )

I know there are people in the forum that track the speed and progress of GIMPS- I wonder if one of them could put some time estimates for when the wavefront of the first LLR test crosses the boundaries of the poll’s groups (i.e., 43 million, 56 million, 79.3 million). Would be interesting; if so, Thanks.

Norm

[quote=Spherical Cow;135076]time estimates for when the wavefront of the first LLR test crosses the boundaries of the poll’s groups (i.e., 43 million,[/quote]Forty-three million has come and gone. The assignments wavefront is over 43.5 million, and there are results already being reported in the 43.3 million range.

[URL]http://mersenne.org/primenet/[/URL]


(Sung to the theme tune of that great TV western, "Rawhide")

Testin', testin', testin' ...
Keep those 'ponents testin' ...
Keep those 'ponents testin' ...

Mur-saaaaane!

Don't try to fricassee 'em ...
Tee-eff, ell-ell, dee-cee 'em ...
But there is no end to the road ...

Mur-saaaaaaane!

Mur-saaaaaaane!

...

(Yes, my lyrics could be improved. "Fricassee" is in especial need of substitution, but remember to rhyme the next line!)

- - - - -

The original lyrics (of the full song, only part of which was used in the TV show theme) are at:

[URL]http://www.lyricsondemand.com/tvthemes/rawhidelyrics.html[/URL]

[URL]http://www.culttelly.co.uk/lyrics/rawhide.html[/URL]

The following site also has lyrics, but with at least one interesting difference from the above versions, probably due to aurally misunderstanding a line:

[URL]http://www.azlyrics.us/249522[/URL]

[quote=davieddy;134938]I guess it's like one of those ESP experiments.[/quote]:lol: !

You mean, if we all think very strongly that it should be 41021021, then it could be....? (In spite of nonzero residue? :cry:)

[quote=Spherical Cow;135076]I know there are people in the forum that track the speed and progress of GIMPS- I wonder if one of them could put some time estimates for when the wavefront of the first LLR test crosses the boundaries of the poll’s groups (i.e., 43 million, 56 million, 79.3 million). Would be interesting; if so, Thanks.

Norm[/quote]
Each million increase in exponent demands~21,000 tests.
GIMPS completes about 10 tests an hour.

[quote=davieddy;135167]Each million increase in exponent demands~21,000 tests.
GIMPS completes about 10 tests an hour.[/quote]
is that 10 tests an hour changing though or is it expected to change because it could take several years for some of these guesses to be reached

[QUOTE=davieddy;135167]Each million increase in exponent demands~21,000 tests.
GIMPS completes about 10 tests an hour.[/QUOTE]

Whew- Thanks. So ballpark, it takes almost 90 days to advance a million, and given that we're in the vicinity of 43 million now, we won't see that 56 million boundary for a little over 3 years, and almost 9 years before we reach the region I voted for (79+ million). Wonder what computer I'll be using then...

Norm

[quote=henryzz;135181]is that 10 tests an hour changing though or is it expected to change because it could take several years for some of these guesses to be reached[/quote]
10 tests an hour is what I observe currently, but also tallies with
the average over GIMPS 11 years of life. As GIMPS computing clout
increases, so does the computing needed per test.

[quote=davieddy;135188]10 tests an hour is what I observe currently, but also tallies with
the average over GIMPS 11 years of life. As GIMPS computing clout
increases, so does the computing needed per test.[/quote]
what i was wondering was are they expected to both increase linearly

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;134976]BTW, I think that we should wait for the polle to be 1 week old before starting the second poll.[/QUOTE]Last chance, the poll will be ended and the new started around 7:00pm Hawaii time.

:bump:

[quote=Uncwilly;135356]Last chance, the poll will be ended and the new started around 7:00pm Hawaii time.[/quote]
Since this deadline has passed, I feel at liberty to offer
my comments on the result of the poll.
The probability of no more primes in the first range is very high.
The probability of no primes between 32M and 43M is >80%
The probability of no primes between 43M and 56M is ~50%
The probability of no primes between 56M and 79M is ~40%

Tests are performed in ascending order.



David

Translating, there should be 1.3 primes from now until we reach 79M. Something about that does NOT ring true to me. From recent history, I would think there were either 2 or 3 primes to be found in that range.


DarJones

Quoting from the GIMPS home page, we expect 1.78 primes
between exponents x and 2x, so GIMPS has been on a very
lucky streak for the last five primes.
The formula used to estimate the expected primes between
exponents e1 and e2 is 2.57*ln(e2/e1).
This tallies with the values that used to be found on the
old colourful GIMPS status page (which some of us miss sorely)

David

BTW I assume you naively added 0.2 + 0.5 + 0.6 to get 1.3

Before LLtesting, we expect 1.78 primes with
exponents between 40M and 80M.
The "Poisson distribution" tells us that the
probability of no primes in this range is~17%.
This tallies with my figures above: 0.8*0.5*0.4 = 0.16

Note that the expected number of primes is not 1 - 0.17.
That gives us the probability of one OR MORE primes.

David

NB we have tested exponents up to 2^25
25*1.78 = 44.5

It is remarkable how well the % poll results reflect
the actual probabilities for each range.

David

[quote=davieddy;135456]
The probability of no more primes in the first range is very high.
The probability of no primes between 32M and 43M is >80%
The probability of no primes between 43M and 56M is ~50%
The probability of no primes between 56M and 79M is ~40%

Tests are performed in ascending order.

[/quote]

So the probabilities of the next prime being found in each range are:

0%
20%
0.8*0.5 = 40%
0.8*0.5*0.6 = 24%
0.8*0.5*0.4 *1 = 16%

David

[quote=davieddy;135504]It is remarkable how well the % poll results reflect
the actual probabilities for each range.[/quote](* ahem *) Perhaps we peeked at the probabilities before answering the poll?

[quote=cheesehead;135519](* ahem *) Perhaps we peeked at the probabilities before answering the poll?[/quote]
The poll was supposed to get closed a couple of days ago.

Currently I'm pleased that my probabilities sum to 1.
Gives me confidence that I still have some marbles left.

David

[quote=cheesehead;135519](* ahem *) Perhaps we peeked at the probabilities before answering the poll?[/quote]
And programmed our response accordingly?

not at all naively davieddy, knew that you had mixed your models. Was pointing out that your math was not exactly kosher.

I might add that your most recent effort is still in error.

DarJones

[quote=Fusion_power;135526]not at all naively davieddy, knew that you had mixed your models. Was pointing out that your math was not exactly kosher.

I might add that your most recent effort is still in error.

DarJones[/quote]
OK you are on!
Point out my error. I'll be back:smile:

Meantime I quote myself:
Note that the expected number of primes is not 1 - 0.17.
That gives us the probability of one OR MORE primes.

David