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-   -   Reverse Quarantine (https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=25406)

a1call 2020-03-29 01:11

Reverse Quarantine
 
I made post earlier in this regard in the Pandemic-Thread, but feel that it desrvws it’s own discussion thread

[B]Reverse Quarantine - DGD-100-A[/B]

* This concept is the same as a regular isolation except that it has multiple offsets of barrier with multiple intermediate zones between the Hot-Zone and the (Disease-)Free-Zone
Concept:

* Isolate the city/area from nonessential external commute

* Scan/Move the 1st isolation line from top of the city/area towards the bottom

** Move the line down as far as you can without passing over anyone with any symptoms

*** This would be the border between the Hot-Zone and the 1st Intermediate-Zone

*After say 14 days:

** Scan/Move the 1st isolation line further down the city/area towards the bottom

*** Move the line down as far as you can without passing over anyone with any symptoms

**** Move some infected people if you must to keep them below the 1st line

** Scan/Move the 2nd isolation line from top of the city/area towards the bottom

*** Move the line down to where you moved 1st isolation line 2 weeks earlier without passing over anyone with any symptoms

**** Move some newly-infected people if you must to keep them below the 2nd line

*After every 14 days repeat the process adding more offset lines if necessary

* This should eventually clear most of the area from the disease concentrating the Hot-Zone to the bottom of the area

* In practice the lines would be offsets of the city/area rather the straight lines entering from the top and would shrink their corresponding zones to medical containment facilities such as hospitals rather than bottom of the area

* Ideally you would concentrate as many resources as you have to a few cities/areas to liberate them from the disease before moving on to other cities/areas

* Once liberated the residents can move freely between the liberated zones

* Train and pay-well people who have recovered, to travel freely to all areas/zones to work as essential services personnel as these people are for the most part immune and non-transmitters of the disease

Thank you for any inputs and thoughts:smile:

CRGreathouse 2020-03-29 01:36

This would seem to require an infeasible amount of labor to implement. And what, exactly, are you doing to moved people? Are you renting a hotel room for them?

retina 2020-03-29 01:48

It makes many unstated assumptions.

Not the least of which are:
That all people involved will cooperate without incident.
That the virus is fully understood in how it is exhibited, how it spreads and how immunity works against future mutations.
That there is some magical way to find and move [i]everyone[/i] is each zone with ever missing even one person. In a place with millions of people how would that be possible?
That there are infinite resources available to implement it.

Exec summary: It is never gonna work. It's impractical.

a1call 2020-03-29 01:51

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;541218]This would seem to require an infeasible amount of labor to implement. And what, exactly, are you doing to moved people? Are you renting a hotel room for them?[/QUOTE]

Well countries are spending Billions of dollars (Except for US @ $2 T and change) to battle this disease. Hotels are out of business for the most part anyways due to travel restrictions, So they are a good choice. There are already converted pavilions and the likes to house moderately ill people in many areas. The severe cases will have to be moved to the hospitals as is the case now. The point of the concept is to have shrinking waves of zones rather than large static isolated zones with millions of people which will infect their populations for months to come.

kladner 2020-03-29 01:54

[QUOTE=retina;541221]It makes many unstated assumptions.

Not the least of which are:
That all people involved will cooperate without incident.
That the virus is fully understood in how it is exhibited, how it spreads and how immunity works against future mutations.
That there is some magical way to find and move [I]everyone[/I] is each zone with ever missing even one person. In a place with millions of people how would that be possible?
That there are infinite resources available to implement it.

Exec summary: It is never gonna work. It's impractical.[/QUOTE]
It is also a terrifying hint of the sort of extreme regimentation and population controls which might be instigated under cover of a crisis.

CRGreathouse 2020-03-29 01:57

I like to think of this as a game: suppose you step into an elevator and you find yourself sharing it with the commissioner of health of New York (the current epicenter of the outbreak). You have just enough time to pitch your idea to him. Can you come up with a compelling enough idea that he tries to implement your plan? (Maybe you're in a tall building and the elevator is slow, but you still have to be fairly concise.)

LaurV 2020-03-30 02:41

Very unrealistic. To add to what other guys said:
(assuming I am sick)
:davar55: Ha! Try to move me out of my house! I wait for you with a gun.
Conclusion, you will have a very fractal border.

a1call 2020-03-30 04:15

Well I don't like it anymore than you do. But you will only have to move if you have symptoms. Which one would you prefer?
* Having your entire city in lockdown for couple of years.
Or
* Spending an all expenses paid couple of weeks/months stay in a perhaps 5 star Hotel, after which you will be free to move around to and from anywhere in the liberated world you wish.

LaurV 2020-03-30 04:38

1 Attachment(s)
Well, I would prefer not to be sick. :razz:
But in case I am sick, of course my first action would be to try to move away from the loved ones and friends. They don't have to pay for my sins/stupidity/misfortune/whatever. And let's accept that getting infected today, when everybody is so well informed, and can try to stay clean and insulated, if he choses so, without being enforced, it is a bit of everything. I mean especially stupidity, unless you are really unfortunate (yeah, I know some will eat me alive for this sentence). If the "moving away" comes with "free accommodation and two or three meals per day", than the sooner the better.
But in reality, the things are more complicate. What you propose, needs a lot more than will. And I am thinking, still, only at the "perimeter" of such reverse-quarantined areas. Think about the piracy on the west Indian Ocean, the whole world is not able to stop it, because the area is so large, even if they sent so may ships there, and they monitor pirate ships from satellites. Add to that a couple of millions small boats... (people moving from here to there).

Also, the idea is not new. That's a bit what South Korea did, they tested almost everybody, and insulated the sick. But this assumes you can test everybody (have tests, have will, have people/resources).

Edit: graphic

[ATTACH]21955[/ATTACH]

Edit 2: [URL="https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?p=541308"]link moved[/URL].

a1call 2020-03-30 09:27

Hey, I have your back, free meals, satellite tv and free wifi. You can even bring your laptop to look for prime numbers if you are bored.:smile:
Once you recover after two negative tests (majority of people recover) we will issue a Certificate-of-Recovered-Superhero that will state that you are now immune to Covid-19 and will not transmit the disease. You will be offered training and high-salary to perform Essential-Services (most governments have already promised to print money out of thin air to pay for this disease). You will also be free to move in and out of any Hot-Zone since you are now immune to Covid-19.:smile:

Uncwilly 2020-03-30 19:53

[QUOTE=a1call;541315]we will issue a Certificate-of-Recovered-Superhero that will state that you are now immune to Covid-19 and will not transmit the disease.[/QUOTE]There is no current certainty that you become immune to future infections/strains and it is not yet proven that a survivor can't be a carrier too.


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