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-   -   Poker and reasoning. (https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=23466)

jwaltos 2018-06-23 20:22

Poker and reasoning.
 
I've recently started playing online poker after an absence of ten years and was pleasantly surprised to see what had taken place during that interim.

Here are two links that are worth a look.

[url]https://www.ualberta.ca/computing-science/research/research-areas/computer-games[/url]
[url]http://webdocs.cs.ualberta.ca/~games/poker/[/url]

Regarding poker, taking a quick look at some of the leader boards and the wins garnered by some of these players makes it easy to understand why good reasoning is mathematical and why an appreciation of probability in all imaginable contexts is important...not just in the tawdry world of gambling but also in the rarefied domain of quantum physics. In my opinion, slowly but surely, artificial intelligence will become self-aware (the singularity) as a quantum system and become a professional gambler.

chalsall 2018-06-23 20:36

[QUOTE=jwaltos;490370]Regarding poker, taking a quick look at some of the leader boards and the wins garnered by some of these players makes it easy to understand why I like math and why an appreciation of probability in all imaginable contexts is important.[/QUOTE]

Do you understand the statement "Gambling is a tax on those who are bad at the Maths?

jwaltos 2018-06-23 23:12

I do Chalsall. I have also been to Williams Lake.

Years ago I got an A+ in tax compliance at Laurier.

chalsall 2018-06-23 23:18

[QUOTE=jwaltos;490387]I do Chalsall. I have also been to Williams Lake.[/QUOTE]

Coolness. You just "outed me". That was my birth place.

I was very thankful the town didn't burn down last year.

jwaltos 2018-06-23 23:39

You are also a very good ambassador for this forum and I have learned a few things from your posts.

Regarding this thread, I'll encapsulate this line of inquiry with this link: Urban Dictionary: Kremlinology

The genteel membership of the Panama Papers club didn't need to gamble.

chalsall 2018-06-23 23:57

[QUOTE=jwaltos;490390]You are also a very good ambassador for this forum and I have learned a few things from your posts.[/QUOTE]

Thank you for that.

Some don't appreciate my humour, but most of my students want to study more....

chalsall 2018-06-24 03:05

[QUOTE=jwaltos;490387]I do Chalsall. I have also been to Williams Lake.[/QUOTE]

If I may please share... Williams Lake somehow attracted some remarkably good teachers.

Mr. Beck taught us Physics. He had travelled throughout the middle east, and was Buddhist. Mr. Sheck taught us Mathematics. He could do calculus in his head, but still somehow tolerated teaching teenagers algebra. "Sheck and Beck"'s real joy was teaching Computer Science. Commodore PETs and VIC 20s. BASIC for some, 6502 for others.

And then there was Mr. Smith. English. Shakespeare.

I was very fortunate to have my mind exploded, at an early age, by such gifted influencers.

VBCurtis 2018-06-24 05:00

[QUOTE=jwaltos;490370]I've recently started playing online poker after an absence of ten years and was pleasantly surprised to see what had taken place during that interim.
[/QUOTE]
I just got home from 3 days playing cash games at the WSOP, and was excited (to say the least!) to see a poker thread on my favorite forum.

Do you play live poker? What game(s)?

Dubslow 2018-06-24 07:42

[QUOTE=VBCurtis;490396]I just got home from 3 days playing cash games at the WSOP[/QUOTE]

:O

Did you do well? How was it? Did you watch the main event while you were at it or is that not how that works?

jwaltos 2018-06-24 15:56

[QUOTE=chalsall;490394]If I may please share... Williams Lake somehow attracted some remarkably good teachers.

Mr. Beck taught us Physics. He had travelled throughout the middle east, and was Buddhist. Mr. Sheck taught us Mathematics. He could do calculus in his head, but still somehow tolerated teaching teenagers algebra. "Sheck and Beck"'s real joy was teaching Computer Science. Commodore PETs and VIC 20s. BASIC for some, 6502 for others.

And then there was Mr. Smith. English. Shakespeare.

I was very fortunate to have my mind exploded, at an early age, by such gifted influencers.[/QUOTE]

While in Djibouti near the end of my military term (FFL) late 80's, I enrolled and was accepted at UBC (EE, Math,CompSci). I met my (ex) wife there (who was my prof) and she was from Williams Lake. Her maiden name was MacMillen. Her dad was a school administrator.



[QUOTE=VBCurtis;490396]I just got home from 3 days playing cash games at the WSOP, and was excited (to say the least!) to see a poker thread on my favorite forum.

Do you play live poker? What game(s)?[/QUOTE]

I do play live and was in New Orleans during the WSOP tourneys there recently. Locally, I play FLH sporadically. In Vegas, I play mainly the cash games at Caesar's and when "just play'in around" I play minimum stakes at Bally's, both NLH. I can play all poker variations (I'm in a Badugi tournament today) though not well and Omaha and Razz can give me a headache. These gambling junkets are completely comp'ed..trip, stay, gourmet restaurants (Ramsay's) and entertainment (Absinthe).. etc. I will only say that blackjack is a good game to learn.


For the record, the live gaming is for entertainment only and are mini-vacations. Whatever we lose/lost would have been the cost of the trip anyway...and unlike many who boast of their wins, I have lost badly many times but lived to fight another day. Regarding online gaming, this is a researcher's (hacker's) paradise. AI, crypto-currencies and mining, profiling...are a few things of interest and they are all based on the application of many forms of mathematics all parsing to boolean logic.

VBCurtis 2018-06-24 17:29

[QUOTE=Dubslow;490404]:O

Did you do well? How was it? Did you watch the main event while you were at it or is that not how that works?[/QUOTE]

The main event is a couple weeks away, but other than timing that is exactly how it works. Walkways run down the middle both vertically and horizontally in the tournament room, and are open to the public. I didn't happen to go to the Rio this trip, as I chose limit holdem for this trip and all the limit games were at Bellagio. I've gone this time of year for ~10 years, and taking in the enormity of 200 poker tables in one room at the Rio is awe-inspiring.

I played mostly $9/18 this trip, and had one of my worst results in Vegas at -$500 or so. I'm a bit out of practice, so I decided not to play my former "usual" game of $20/40.

Mr Waltos-
Badugi!? I'd like a tournament of that, as I only know the fundamentals of the game so I'm still a little uncomfortable with it in mixed games. Playing a weird tourney like that really helps with seeing how others handle unusual spots and strengthening a strategic grasp of a new game.

I've played a WSOP Stud-8 event, which was an expensive way to discover that crushing local $4/8 and small tournies in a game is a false sense of skill compared to people who actually know what they're doing. On the bright side, the tourney experience plus some study gave me the balls to play the 15/30 and 20/40 OE games in LA, which have been pretty profitable.

jwaltos 2018-06-25 03:42

VB,
No need to call me Mr. You are also someone within this forum whose posts I read and learn from.

Dan Negreanu has been up here a few times for various reasons and played at the local casino. He played blackjack and the smallest poker game there. At the BJ table I asked him what made a great poker player and he said "No fear." I also met him at the first Leafs and Knights game of the year in Vegas...he is a Knights fan and I had to say that they outplayed the Leafs that night. Years ago, I remember seeing Chip Reese, Brunson, Ivey and other pros playing in the back room at the Bellagio...it was an interesting sight.

If you wish to pay less tuition at the tables, join CardsChat and the PokerStars school. Good advice and a place to test what you learn.
My goal now is to only play in the biggest games and qualify for live events. Good luck in your games ...except if you and I are at the same table;)

VBCurtis 2018-06-25 05:51

I was pretty active on the twoplustwo forums back before Black Friday. I haven't played online since, and only make time for 80-100 hrs of live poker a year. That lack of practice is what prevents me from moving above $20/40 stakes; I'm up something like 100 bets in 150ish hours at 15 and 20 games. I need more technical ability and applied game theory to even dabble in 40/80.

Bobby's Room at Bellagio still has the big game; it varied from 1000/2000 to 4000/8000 while I was there last week. When I arrived Thursday, there were NINE tables going at Bellagio of $200/400 or bigger! It was weird to see folks I recognised from TV out on the main poker floor, playing with $25k+ in front of them. "Hey, cool, I can sweat Johnny Chan! He's playing $400/800 two tables away."

jwaltos 2018-09-04 03:09

A long while ago I remember sitting beside a model who had a diamond the size of half a walnut on her finger at the Bellagio. I didn't know if there was a Victoria's Secret convention taking place but there were many more "better than average" looking women poker than what I was accustomed to at that particular time.

I've been playing a lot of micro games and researching what's out there in terms of good poker software. This includes both the allowed and forbidden software that exists to determine what kind of mathematics forms its backbone.

jwaltos 2018-10-10 05:45

There are a couple of downloadable MIT open course zip files from 2015 and 2016 which give a good overview of what is required to play (hold'em poker) appropriately. During Chen's video presentation (contained in one of the files) he describes a poker problem which has been solved. He also alludes to work done at the U of A.

There are numerous statistics relative to card strength, bankroll management, opponent assessment..which must be continually monitored. As a relatively new player I managed to place 301st from approx. 5500 entrants in a Poker Stars Sunday Million game recently. If I am able to repeat and improve upon this initial benchmark several more times then some of the theory I have absorbed has been properly implemented.

jwaltos 2018-11-08 21:14

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yC710q2ohA&feature=youtu.be[/url]

I saw a post in another forum recommending this You tube link for some poker bot discussion between two professional players. I watched pieces of this and though I did not see any discussion about poker bots I did appreciate the discussions that centered on psychology founded on mathematical reasoning. For those who have been as curious as I have regarding how mathematical reasoning is implemented in specialized ``poker`` software, the term GTO was used in the discussion referencing a live game. Another, almost scary, aspect of this discussion is the kind of money wagered on such ``games.``

jwaltos 2019-09-14 04:18

[url]https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/359/6374/418.full.pdf[/url]

Here is an article for anyone that has played against a pokerbot either unwittingly or knowingly. When these things start getting migraines then I will begin to get concerned...
As always, it's a good idea to peek under the curtain and look at the wizard: [url]http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~sandholm/[/url]

e pluribus unum

jwaltos 2019-09-14 06:19

Here is a quote from the last paragraph of a related NYT article:

"...The success of Pluribus showed that poker can be boiled down to nothing but math, Mr. Elias said: “Pure numbers and percentages. It is solving the game itself.”

Many years ago when I was competitive springboard diver, our coach would end our practice when we would "nail" or "almost nail" a challenging dive. I think these last two posts have "nailed" the intent of this thread.

Going back to Libratus, here is a link which contains a decent explanatory video:
[url]https://www.engadget.com/2017/02/10/libratus-ai-poker-winner/[/url]

LaurV 2019-09-16 04:56

Maybe not much related, during '92-'96 we wrote a firmware for a poker slot machine, which was "tuned" to make money. The machine was playing "probabilistic", when it was ok with the money, or even random, but it was starting to cheat and cheating more and more heavily when it was getting "closer to the boundary". The house always grabbed a 10% or 20% of the money the machine was turning in and out, or whatever was "allowed" (by the law, or whatever, we are the programmer, not the lawyer, neither the sociologist, nor the mother of wounded/stupid people :razz:). Interesting enough, some of those machines are still in use, in spite of many problems they have from the mechanical point of view (generally, half-drunk guys who lose money are not kind with the machine, you guess!). Which prove that the owners still make enough money from them to go through the effort of keeping them going. People occasionally win some money, and this keeps the "geniuses" coming to play. Which in turn, proves that the mother of stupids is always pregnant.

retina 2019-10-11 12:14

Poker cheat
 
[url]https://www.theringer.com/2019/10/4/20899034/poker-cheating-mike-postle-stones-gambling-hall-twitch-no-limit-holdem-sacramento-veronica-brill[/url]

I saw a clip where the (alleged) cheat is playing PLO. He is sitting with his phone on the chair between his legs. The RFID system on the table that reads that cards has not been updated correctly for PLO and is only registering two cards for each player instead of the four they have. This appears to be a temporary configuration error on the part of the casino.

So the cheat looks at his crotch, and thus at his phone. Then he moves his cards over the reader. Then looks back at his crotch. Then he spreads all the cards out over the reader again. Then looks back at his crotch. Then he waves all the cards out over the reader again. Then looks back at his crotch. But the system isn't reading those last two cards. Clearly he is trying to get the final two cards to read. He is trying to somehow get the system unstuck and read the remaining two cards. Then he would be able see all the opponents cards. But it isn't happening, and he finally gives up and plays like a normal human again for that hand. However he still knows two of the four cards his opponents have, so he still has a large advantage.

Now the question is how could he possibly know the cards aren't being read? He can't know, in theory. It is supposed to be privileged information not available to the players during the game.

That is just one hand. For the 7-card hold'em hands he makes bizarre plays that are always the correct play [i]if[/i] you knew the opponents cards.

So he has hacked into the casino system and is able to know his opponents cards. He is streaming that info to his phone. He keeps his phone hidden from others by placing it on his chair under the table. In every hand he is constantly looking at his crotch at critical moments when the cards are dealt. And also at times when the cards missed the reader and he is waiting for the other player to finally move the cards into position over the reader so he can learn what those cards are.

retina 2019-10-12 03:03

And it gets better
 
In the post session interview after the PLO game above, the cheater goes into the booth and sits down and asks "What happened in that game where only two cards were read?" There is no way he could have known the system wasn't working for that game, unless he was watching the system.

In another interview he is being asked about one of this completely bizarre plays that no one can understand, but which is obvious if you know what the opponents cards are. So he is waffling on about vague nonsense and at one point says "Well I wasn't sure what their other cards were ... " Any normal player wouldn't be sure what their other cards were, and there is no need to even say that, it should simply be understood. The only reason to say that is if you are trying to cover up your knowledge and feel it is important to state that you didn't know it.

He only ever plays the streamed games. He is there thirty minutes before the start on his own at the table doing nothing waiting for the game to start. He won't play at the other tables. And after the streaming session has ended he packs up his chips and leaves while everyone else continues to play on.


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