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-   -   MAJOR CATASTROPHIC EARTHQUAKE IN SEPTEMBER 2010!!! (https://www.mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=12723)

ewmayer 2009-11-16 18:03

MAJOR CATASTROPHIC EARTHQUAKE IN SEPTEMBER 2010!!!
 
Someone has been distributing small square paper flyers with the following warning in my area:
[quote][b][size=+3]Major Catastrophic[/size]
[size=+5]EARTHQUAKE[/size]
[size=+1]COMING[/size]
[size=+4][u]September 2010[/u][/size][/b]
[size=+1]In the greatest US ecological & environmental
disaster of the century, all the experts agree.[/size]
[b][size=+2]Severe infrastructure damage to hit ![/size][/b]
[size=+1]Banks, Jobs, Gas, Electric, Roadways > Ruined!
[u][b]..................DO NOT GET TRAPPED!..............[/b][/u]
***Be Wise * Play it Safe * Plan Ahead***[/size]
[u][b][size=+2]All details at 2ww4.blogspot.com[/size][/b][/u]
Warning the people, 2ww4 is a non profit, volunteer distribution[/quote]
[i]My Comment:[/i] Where to begin ... "All the experts" apparently does not include numerous folks at the USGS in Menlo Park, California, who appear frequently on our local Bay Area news broadcasts and when asked about this kind of earthquake prediction, pronounce it "bunk". Note that that doesn't make them "right" ... it simply makes them "not experts". Next, the "Banks and Jobs" catastrophe has already occurred, but not as a result of an earthquake. Lastly, on a grammatical note, wouldn't it be the earthquake hitting and *causing* the infrastructure damage? Inquiring minds want to know.

But just to be safe, I suggest readers having any spare cash (or stuff they can sell to raise such) to buy all the land on the side of the various faults opposite that which will fall into the sea.

Seriously, I realize it's natural to be skeptical of loud unsupported claims like the above, but if you visit the 2ww4 website, they really do make some compelling scientific arguments, for example
[quote]Invasion2Come is the warning of the Invasion of America in WW3 and the Invasion of the Lord Jesus Christ to overthrow the world in WW4. The links above, as well as signs I have received, are an abundant compilation of testimonies of direct downloads from Heaven.[/quote]
So some geologically influential Hispanic fellow named "Jesus" with megalomaniacal tendencies is going to try to "overthrow the world" next Fall? I trust the keeper of the above blog has notified Homeland Security...

rogue 2009-11-16 20:09

They must be competing with the December 2012 folk...

ewmayer 2009-11-16 20:38

[QUOTE=rogue;196061]They must be competing with the December 2012 folk...[/QUOTE]
Yeah, but that whole 2012 thing is just an elaborate marketing gimmick for the Hollywood movie, whereas this here 2ww4 "quake before Jesus, your Lord and Master" deal is - as the website assures us - for real.

I expect the scientistically-brainwashed folks will claim that it's just a religio-pretentious prank designed to scare the bejesus (pronounced "bay-HAY-sooss") out of the credulous.

rogue 2009-11-16 20:50

[QUOTE=ewmayer;196067]Yeah, but that whole 2012 thing is just an elaborate marketing gimmick for the Hollywood movie, whereas this here 2ww4 "quake before Jesus, your Lord and Master" deal is - as the website assures us - for real.

I expect the scientistically-brainwashed folks will claim that it's just a religio-pretentious prank designed to scare the bejesus (pronounced "bay-HAY-sooss") out of the credulous.[/QUOTE]

People believe that the world will end in 2012. Read [URL="http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=5301284&page=1"]this.[/URL]

Here are some other predictions for the end of the world:

[url]http://wiki.answers.com/Q/When_is_the_world_going_to_end[/url]
[url]http://www.religioustolerance.org/end_wrl18.htm[/url]

although these are pretty whacked out. I just love the logic behind some of these predictions.

jasonp 2009-11-19 02:56

I don't remember where I read it, but a flat-earther wrote a letter to somone at one of the national labs during the cold war; apparently he was concerned that Soviet nuclear tests would tip the earth their way and everyone would slide off. The gov't employee wrote back that there was nothing to worry about, the US planned equivalent nuclear tests on their side of the earth at the same time. Unfortunately the flat-earther was so gratified that he wrote a glowing letter of commendation to the employee's superiors :)

ewmayer 2009-12-02 15:38

At the risk of being seen as just another self-promoting forum (im)moderator, I am sticking this thread. I intend to check back next September - if I am still around to do so, having avoided getting "to hit" by the "major infrastructure damage" or "ruined" like the banks - to see how this whole thing panned out for the perspicacious flyer-distributing prognosticators.

(Since their prediction is so dire it makes me wonder whether we need a new word here, e.g. "negnosticator").

xilman 2009-12-02 16:39

[QUOTE=ewmayer;197595](Since their prediction is so dire it makes me wonder whether we need a new word here, e.g. "negnosticator").[/QUOTE]Seems appropriate to me. Etymologically your neologism means "knowledge denier".

It is a Latin-Greek hybrid, though it has good company. Other common examples include "bigamist" and "sociopath".


Paul

ewmayer 2010-01-07 18:13

1 Attachment(s)
We just had a significant shaker here in Silicon Valley, at around 10:10am PST. Using the seat-of-the-pants estimation method [url=http://mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=9538]described in this thread[/url], time lag between the P and S-waves roughly 1-2 sec, so I'm guessing it was within 10 miles of my work in Sunnyvale. Guessing ~5.5 for magnitude.

EDIT: And here is what the USGS [url=http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/SF_Bay.html]has to say[/url]:
[code]
MAG DATE LOCAL-TIME LAT LON DEPTH LOCATION
y/m/d h:m:s deg deg km
4.1 2010/01/07 10:09:35 37.477N 121.797W 9.0 10 km ( 6 mi) ENE of Milpitas, CA[/code]

Hmm, wonder how I was so far off on the estimated magnitude ... perhaps there's a significantly different structural response of my apartment in Cupertino (where I've been for all previously noticeable-to-me quakes) compared to my work (a much larger, airier building).

EDIT 2: When I entered my work address and the geographical coordinates given by the USGS for the quake into Yahoo maps, I got the picture below - if the coordinates are correct, that would place it right next to the Calaveras reservoir, which IIRC lies next to the [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calaveras_Fault]Calaveras fault[/url]:

ATH 2010-01-07 21:12

Maybe it's a real time traveller this time coming back to warn us about The big earthquake? :grin:

[URL="http://www.snopes.com/humor/iftrue/insider.asp"]http://www.snopes.com/humor/iftrue/insider.asp[/URL]

ewmayer 2010-01-08 20:07

We had a Mag 3.8 aftershock 15 mins ago, at nearly the identical location, which is also very close to the epicenter of the 30 October 2007 Mag 5.4 quake described in the first link of my post above. It seems to be quite an active fault.

flouran 2010-01-09 04:46

[QUOTE=ewmayer;201176]We just had a significant shaker here in Silicon Valley, at around 10:10am PST.[/QUOTE]
You call 4.1 SIGNIFICANT?!!! lolz

Don't you remember the quake in '89? I would call that significant, but certainly not this one. :smile:

Uncwilly 2010-01-10 02:03

6.5 off the California coast
[url]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/nc71338066.php[/url]

Batalov 2010-01-10 02:50

We, too, had a 5.9 ten days ago, on the border.

davieddy 2010-01-10 11:43

[quote=ewmayer;201176]We just had a significant shaker here in Silicon Valley, at around 10:10am PST. Using the seat-of-the-pants estimation method [URL="http://mersenneforum.org/showthread.php?t=9538"]described in this thread[/URL], time lag between the P and S-waves roughly 1-2 sec, so I'm guessing it was within 10 miles of my work in Sunnyvale. Guessing ~5.5 for magnitude.

EDIT: And here is what the USGS [URL="http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/SF_Bay.html"]has to say[/URL]:
[code]
MAG DATE LOCAL-TIME LAT LON DEPTH LOCATION
y/m/d h:m:s deg deg km
4.1 2010/01/07 10:09:35 37.477N 121.797W 9.0 10 km ( 6 mi) ENE of Milpitas, CA[/code]

Hmm, wonder how I was so far off on the estimated magnitude ... perhaps there's a significantly different structural response of my apartment in Cupertino (where I've been for all previously noticeable-to-me quakes) compared to my work (a much larger, airier building).

[/quote]

IIRC your seat-of-the-pants seismometer was your swimming pool.

Does your place of work have a similar one?

David

PS when I felt the only earthquake I have ever "experienced",
the only way I noticed it was literally through the seat of my pants.

PPS I resist the temptation to include a clip of
"Don't Rock the Boat". Or anything with shake, rattle or roll
in the title. I like to think I can take a hint:)

PPPS I won't mention Huygens either, lest we get into
another cheesehead-style AGW debate.

Xyzzy 2010-01-11 20:59

[url]http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/20658/?a=f[/url]
[url]http://qcn.stanford.edu/[/url]
[url]http://www.benevenagh.freeuk.com/interface/quake.htm[/url]

ewmayer 2010-01-11 22:07

[QUOTE=flouran;201324]You call 4.1 SIGNIFICANT?!!! lolz

Don't you remember the quake in '89? I would call that significant, but certainly not this one. :smile:[/QUOTE]

I based my description on how much my cube at work was shaking - and I assure you it was "significant". That`s why I was surprised to see the official magnitude being reported as a mere 4.1. The degree of shaking felt very similar the October 30 magnitude 5.5 event, which I experienced at a similar distance-from-respective-epicenter.

@davieddy: Alas, we have no swimming-pool seismometer at work.

Jeff Gilchrist 2010-01-14 00:37

They were close in their prediction, just a few months late, too far north, and the wrong natively spoken language...

[url]http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/14/world/americas/14haiti.html?ref=world[/url]

flouran 2010-01-14 01:58

[QUOTE=rogue;196061]They must be competing with the December 2012 folk...[/QUOTE]

According to some Christian fanatic on the radio by the name of Harold Camping the world will end in 2011.

To be more precise, he predicts that:
May 21, 2011: rapture begins
October 2011: world is destroyed

Can't wait to see who will be correct as to when the world will end (i.e. either '10, '11, or '12?)...:wink:

Uncwilly 2010-01-14 06:58

[QUOTE=flouran;201846]According to some Christian fanatic...
To be more precise, he predicts that:
May 21, 2011: rapture begins
October 2011: world is destroyed[/QUOTE]He hasn't read his Bible
"No man knows the day or hour"

Jeff Gilchrist 2010-01-15 18:33

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;201862]He hasn't read his Bible
"No man knows the day or hour"[/QUOTE]

But maybe it wasn't a man who told him the day or hour... :wink:

Mini-Geek 2010-01-15 19:11

[quote=Jeff Gilchrist;202030]But maybe it wasn't a man who told him the day or hour... :wink:[/quote]
[quote=Matthew 24:36]No one knows about that day or hour, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father.[/quote]
Soo...God told some fanatic the day the rapture would begin, but won't even tell his Son or angels? Yeah, that's tootally believable. :rolleyes:
I think it's more likely he hasn't read his Bible, or worse, has decided to pretend that means something else.

petrw1 2010-01-15 20:27

[QUOTE=flouran;201846] the world will end in 2011.

To be more precise, he predicts that:
May 21, 2011: rapture begins
[/QUOTE]

Gee, that's 2 days AFTER I was going to retire.

ewmayer 2010-01-19 17:41

[QUOTE=flouran;201846]According to some Christian fanatic on the radio by the name of Harold Camping the world will end in 2011.

To be more precise, he predicts that:
May 21, 2011: rapture begins
October 2011: world is destroyed

Can't wait to see who will be correct as to when the world will end (i.e. either '10, '11, or '12?)...:wink:[/QUOTE]
I believe I've told this story elsewhere on the forum, but can't seem to find it ... back when I was as teenager I briefly experimented with religion, at the invitation of a school friend whose family attended a local evangelical-Christian church. (My dad was nominal Lutheran, but nonpracticing, Mom was raised Catholic but also lapsed after marrying Dad). Several months into the "free trial", about a dozen of us were sitting in sunday school class, and the sunday school "teacher", a 30something lady, told us flat-out that there was a giant cube-shaped star that astronomers had spotted hurtling toward earth (I was a tad skeptical since Dad was an avid amateur astronomer, but held my tongue) and that it was the 2nd coming and that none of would live to see 30. Now I'm sure she meant well, that she intended the "won't live to see 30" in a *good* way ... but I never went back. That was enough religious nuttery for me for one lifetime. Now I made it to 30 and in fact well beyond, but the scary thing is that there are huge numbers of people out there who *believe* this kind of stuff, and most major religions, while not making crazy-sounding-and-easily-refutable astronomical claims, have at their core assertions which are no less wacky. Loaves and fishes, anyone? God's rather pronounced pro-Hebrew bias in the old testament? Virgin births? Might as well be a giant cuboidal star hurtling towards Earth, bringing the rapture.

Sorry, don't intend to turn this into a religion-debate thread, but thought the above worth sharing.

davieddy 2010-02-27 08:15

Man bites dog
 
8.8 earthquake in Chile - not many dead.

Yet.

Uncwilly 2010-03-16 12:35

4.5 outside of Los Angeles
[url]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/ci14601172.php[/url]

Spherical Cow 2010-03-16 18:44

1 Attachment(s)
[QUOTE=ewmayer;202433].... and that it was the 2nd coming and that none of would live to see 30. [/QUOTE]

While I was a college student, Comet Kohoutek appeared, and a surprisingly large and organized group of people showed up on campus passing out literature, explaining that the world would end at 10 pm on January 31.

Not wanting to let a good crisis go to waste, those of us in our dorm organized an "End of the World Party", with invitations carefully and laboriously typed on toilet paper (see below). Had a grand time, toasting the end of life as we knew it; several of the "heathens" among us insisted on leaving early to do homework that was due the next day, while the true believers partied on, insisting there was, of course, no need to do homework.

Unfortunately, there was.

Norm

cheesehead 2010-03-17 00:03

Ernst, Norm:

Both are great stories! Thanks.

Spherical Cow 2010-03-17 18:54

I wonder if Ernst and I were the victims of the same end-of-the-world comet?

Ernst- The souvenir toilet paper I have is dated 1974; was that the year of your run-in with religion?

Norm


P.S.- You know it's a good thread when there are phrases like "the souvenir toilet paper I have is dated 1974..."

--------------------

[i]Edit: Was perusing some of the old posts in this thread just now, came across this one, and realized that I never replied to Norm - in fact, I was 14-15 at the time of my "cuboid star hurtling toward earth and bringing the 2nd coming" experience, which means 1977-78ish. Pretty close, "only a few TP rolls away", as the saying goes. --EWM[/i]

bsquared 2010-03-17 18:59

[QUOTE=Spherical Cow;208671]... souvenir toilet paper ...[/QUOTE]

An excellent name for a rock band.


[SIZE="1"]with apologies to Dave Barry...[/SIZE]

cheesehead 2010-03-17 20:00

[quote=Spherical Cow;208546]Not wanting to let a good crisis go to waste, those of us in our dorm organized an "End of the World Party", with invitations carefully and laboriously typed on toilet paper (see below).[/quote]Wisconsin used to host (and boast) the Madison Museum of Bathroom Tissue. (Several manufacturers of bathroom tissue are headquartered in Wisconsin.)

[URL]http://www.articlesbase.com/news-and-society-articles/madison-museum-of-bathroom-tissue-922214.html[/URL]

[quote]In its day, the Madison Museum of Bathroom Tissue, established in 1992, was the largest and arguably most important bathroom tissue museum in the world. Before closing in 2000, "the MMBT" was located at 305 N. Hamilton in Madison, Wisconsin, USA, in a second-floor apartment three blocks from the state capitol. Besides its impressive collection of toilet paper from across the country and around the world, the museum featured an audio tour and informative displays detailing the history of toilet paper.

The collection

At its peak, the MMBT's permanent collection contained approximately 3,000 rolls of toilet paper. The toilet paper's origins ranged from the bathrooms of other museums, like the Metropolitan Museum of Art and the Guggenheim, to American tourist destinations like Wall Drug and Graceland. The museum also boasted extensive holdings of European, African, Australian, Canadian, and Mexican toilet paper as well as an encyclopedic collection of toilet paper from bars and restaurants located in Madison. The Manufacturers Wing contained a relatively small but interesting collection of retail samples donated by toilet paper manufacturers, many with headquarters in Wisconsin's Fox River Valley paper-producing area. Kimberly-Clark, which makes Cottonelle bathroom tissue, was one such contributor.

Contributions

Visitors to the museum were always encouraged to collect toilet paper during their own travels and donate it to the museum. Sometimes specific donations were sought, to expand particular museum collections such as de To Our Mothers, a display which boasted toilet paper taken from museumgoers mothers bathrooms. When the staff realized it had every contiguous U.S. state represented except for North Dakota, it went to the airwaves on North Dakota drive-time radio and sought mail-in donations. In addition to its normal hours, the MMBT frequently held evening social events to display recent acquisitions, welcome new visitors to the museum, and recruit more toilet-paper collectors. Those who regularly donated toilet paper were awarded membership complete with i.d. cards. The museum publications included brochures, a calendar, and the MMBT newsletter, wipe.

MMBT exhibit.

While the first museumgoers were largely University of Wisconsin students and Madison residents, the MMBT eventually found its way into numerous national magazines and travel guides, which resulted in people from around the country visiting the museum. The Madison Museum of Bathroom Tissue was eventually acknowledged by the Madison Chamber of Commerce and the Wisconsin Tourism Board as well. By the mid-to-late 1990s, the collection had grown to its peak size of 3,000 rolls and the MMBT member roster boasted nearly 25 dedicated collectors. Due to changes in staff availability, the MMBT began to limit visiting hours toward the end of the nineties. The museum closed its doors in December 2000 when the remaining live-in staff vacated the address to move away from Madison. The collection currently resides in Elgin, IL, kept in storage by new owners Caleb and Tracy Hanson.

Collection origins

The roll of toilet paper that would bring about the genesis of the MMBT was ...[/quote](I'll let you read the rest at the site.)

The Wikipedia article is here: [URL]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madison_Museum_of_Bathroom_Tissue[/URL]

[URL]http://www.tagyerit.com/madison.htm[/URL] has photos of some of the rolls, from famous locations such as the Empire State Building and Churchill Downs.

- - -

Personal note: I first learned calculus from a mentor who drew diagrams and formulas with a ballpoint pen on a partial roll of bathroom tissue. On a lazy September Saturday afternoon we had been assisting the construction of an exhibit booth for the upcoming state fair. There was a lull while someone went to fetch materials, so Graham Kendall, my mentor, got the partial roll from the restroom, and proceeded to show me the basics of differential and integral calculus.

Uncwilly 2010-03-17 20:29

[QUOTE=bsquared;208672]An excellent name for a rock band.[/QUOTE]They are playing at South By SouthWest

Spherical Cow 2010-03-17 23:15

[QUOTE=cheesehead;208681]Wisconsin used to host (and boast) the Madison Museum of Bathroom Tissue. [/QUOTE]

Cheesehead- That is tremendous. But I am deeply saddened to hear that such an establishment existed and I didn't even know about it. I've encountered some interesting toilet paper in my travels, and would have gladly sent them samples in the hopes of meriting an actual MMBT membership I.D. card. That would be an even higher honor than my Prudhoe Bay Golf and Country Club membership (from the 1970s).

Hope the MMBT is resurrected one day-

Norm

davieddy 2010-03-18 00:46

While waiting at a bus stop the other day, I was
wiling the time away with two ladies. One had a bag
with a large quantity of toilet paper.
In my risquee style (familiar to all here) I confessed that
I had avoided the need to buy and transport the stuff for
several years by using old newspapers.

Lady with the bog rolls: "I wouldn't do that but my mother used to"
Me: "I find the Sun more absorbent than The Times".
Other lady: "but your finger pokes through the Sun".

That is my idea of small talk at its best.

David

retina 2010-03-18 02:22

Shades of brown
 
1 Attachment(s)
[url]http://epicwinftw.com/2010/03/15/epic-win-photos-shades-of-brown/[/url]

cheesehead 2010-03-18 03:03

Further digression
 
[quote=davieddy;208708]That is my idea of small talk at its best.[/quote]Yes, but ...

[URL]http://depression.about.com/b/2010/03/10/meaningful-conversation-contributes-to-happiness.htm[/URL]

[URL]http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/talk-deeply-be-happy/[/URL]

[URL]http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2010/02/17/0956797610362675.full[/URL]

davieddy 2010-03-18 03:22

[quote=cheesehead;208720]Yes, but ...

[URL]http://depression.about.com/b/2010/03/10/meaningful-conversation-contributes-to-happiness.htm[/URL]

[URL]http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/talk-deeply-be-happy/[/URL]

[URL]http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2010/02/17/0956797610362675.full[/URL][/quote]
As you would not hesitate to point out,
I said nothing about the relative merits of talk size.

David

Except that if my example was indeed small talk
at its best, I was not exactly extolling its virtues:)

davieddy 2010-03-18 03:59

[quote=retina;208715][URL]http://epicwinftw.com/2010/03/15/epic-win-photos-shades-of-brown/[/URL][/quote]
I remember Roger Penrose suing some manufacturer
for incorporating his tiling on their loo paper.

retina 2010-03-18 04:32

[QUOTE=davieddy;208725]I remember Roger Penrose suing some manufacturer
for incorporating his tiling on their loo paper.[/QUOTE]But did the tiles all need to be coloured brown?

philmoore 2010-03-18 11:20

[QUOTE=davieddy;208725]I remember Roger Penrose suing some manufacturer
for incorporating his tiling on their loo paper.[/QUOTE]

I have some of that paper with the Penrose tiling pattern, and would be interested if anyone knows if there is any truth to this story. Penrose has a wry sense of humor, and might have said something like this in jest, but I think that in reality he would have been honored. Now that we know that Penrose tiling predates Penrose by 500 years, a lawsuit probably wouldn't hold up in court anyway:
[url]http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/8270/title/Math_Trek__Ancient_Islamic_Penrose_Tiles[/url]

davieddy 2010-03-18 11:48

[quote=retina;208726]But did the tiles all need to be coloured brown?[/quote]
Four shades suffice

Uncwilly 2010-03-18 13:57

[QUOTE=davieddy;208738]Four shades suffice[/QUOTE]

[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_color_theorem[/url]

retina 2010-03-18 14:07

[QUOTE=davieddy;208738]Four shades suffice[/QUOTE]Considering the intended usage, one shade should be enough.

ewmayer 2010-03-18 15:51

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;208751][url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_color_theorem[/url][/QUOTE]

Given the present context, perhaps we need a [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_flush]four-flusher[/url] corollary?

davieddy 2010-03-19 04:19

[quote=ewmayer;208770]Given the present context, perhaps we need a [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_flush"]four-flusher[/URL] corollary?[/quote]
We can always rely on Ernst to maintain the tone
of a conversation.

I've enjoyed my 60th birthday for several reasons,
this repartee being one:smile:

David

Uncwilly 2010-04-04 23:07

6.9 in Baja California about 15 minutes ago.
[url]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/ci14607652.php[/url]

Uncwilly 2010-04-05 01:21

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;210585]6.9 in Baja California about 15 minutes ago.
[url]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/ci14607652.php[/url][/QUOTE]
Upgraded to 7.2

Mathew 2010-04-14 11:51

Magnitude 6.9 - SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA [URL="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2010/us2010vacp/"]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2010/us2010vacp/[/URL]

Batalov 2010-06-15 05:33

[URL="http://www.data.scec.org/recenteqs/Quakes/ci14745580.html"]5.7 SoCal[/URL]
[SIZE=1][I]...Look out the window. And doesn't this remind you of when you were in the boat, and then later than night, you were lying, looking up at the ceiling, and the water in your head was not dissimilar from the landscape, and you think to yourself, "Why is it that the landscape is moving, but the boat is still?"[/I][/SIZE]

Uncwilly 2010-06-15 05:44

[QUOTE=Batalov;218635][URL="http://www.data.scec.org/recenteqs/Quakes/ci14745580.html"]5.7 SoCal[/URL][/QUOTE]Likely an aftershock of the 7.2 noted above.

Uncwilly 2010-07-07 00:18

1 Attachment(s)
[QUOTE=Uncwilly;218640]Likely an aftershock of the 7.2 noted above.[/QUOTE]
It seems that the recent earthquakes have triggered an up tick in minor quakes up and down the main fault in California.
[url]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqscanv/[/url]

Uncwilly 2010-07-07 23:59

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;220713]It seems that the recent earthquakes have triggered an up tick in minor quakes up and down the main fault in California.
[url]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqscanv/[/url][/QUOTE]
[url]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/ci10736069.php[/url]

5.9 near Palms Springs.

The whole thing is going to rip wide open and California is going to fall into the sea!

Batalov 2010-07-08 00:02

It keeps getting closer... :sirrobin:
Felt just like the one above [SPOILER]where I quoted the 'Dead Man'.[/SPOILER]

frmky 2010-07-08 00:43

[QUOTE=Batalov;220757]Felt just like the one above[/QUOTE]
This one was more like a slow, gentle rocking. Thought I was out to sea for a bit.

jasonp 2010-07-16 11:40

As of this morning, the *Washington* area got hit by a magnitude 3.6 earthquake. The epicenter apparently was less than 5 miles from my house. It lasted 8 seconds, and woke me up at 5am (it's a terrible curse being a light sleeper). According to local radio, the last earthquake we had here was a tiny one in 1993.

Raman 2010-09-03 09:18

Today is that predicted earthquake date
at 2ww4.blogspot.com
Be alert! :smile:

science_man_88 2010-09-03 13:24

[QUOTE=Raman;228256]Today is that predicted earthquake date
at 2ww4.blogspot.com
Be alert! :smile:[/QUOTE]

I'm in Canada and on the east coast we don't have to be alert lol.

oh wait I forgot hurricane Earl lol.

Uncwilly 2010-09-03 14:05

[QUOTE=Raman;228256]Today is that predicted earthquake date
at 2ww4.blogspot.com
Be alert! :smile:[/QUOTE]Thanks for the reminder. I shall watch the USGS website.

Jeff Gilchrist 2010-09-03 14:54

[QUOTE=science_man_88;228274]I'm in Canada and on the east coast we don't have to be alert lol.[/QUOTE]

Maybe the earthquake will be so catastrophic that it will create such a large tsunami that it will go around the world and hit the east coast... :alien: at the same time that Earl hits too... :ouch2:

Uncwilly 2010-09-03 16:16

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;228278]Thanks for the reminder. I shall watch the USGS website.[/QUOTE]
[url]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqscanv/[/url]

Raman 2010-09-03 17:18

[quote=Uncwilly;228296][URL="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqscanv/"]http://earthquake.usgs.gov[/URL][/quote]
Do you really believe in that
prediction, rather that way?

Uncwilly 2010-09-03 20:21

7.4 in New Zealand
[url]http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100903/ap_on_re_as/as_new_zealand_earthquake[/url]

frmky 2010-09-04 06:41

Right date, wrong place. :no:

Raman 2010-09-04 12:36

[URL]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2010atbj.php[/URL]
[SIZE=2]
[B]Magnitude 7.0 - SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND[/B][/SIZE][SIZE=2]
[B]2010 September 03 16:35:46 UTC

[/B][/SIZE]44 km W from [B]Christchurch, New Zealand

Any reports of casualties?
Of course, that this earthquake is not to that catastrophic scale at all
with no tsunami perhaps, probably
Maybe that event will happen sometime during
"same month, different date"!
[/B]

retina 2010-09-04 12:48

[QUOTE=Raman;228393]Maybe that event will happen sometime during "same month, different date"![/QUOTE]Maybe if we choose enough dates then one of them will turn out to be correct. It is merely a matter of prediction by machine gun, fire enough bullets and one is likely to hit the target.

The other common prediction method is just to be purely vague and non-committal. Cover enough of a base with a single broad range sentence or paragraph and some event is bound to be close enough to look like a suitable match.

Ah, the art of prediction is surely a delicate and difficult one.

davieddy 2010-09-04 13:14

Plenty of opportunity for interviews where the irnswers
sound like quistions?

lavalamp 2010-09-05 11:18

This is just sad:[quote=http://howdeceivediwas.blogspot.com/]First and foremost, I want to apologize for this failed prophecy.

With others across the nation possibly getting these lying signs, as well as I, it looks like Satan and his demons may have pulled the wool over our eyes.

From this, we can also see that demons are very active and are very slick at what they do. This is quite possibly a testimony of their supernatural activity at work. They target christians because christians are their enemy. They've may have won this battle, but they have not won the war![/quote]

Mini-Geek 2010-09-05 13:44

(at the risk of getting flamed...)
[QUOTE=lavalamp;228520]This is just sad:[/QUOTE]

I don't think these few quotes do justice to [URL="http://howdeceivediwas.blogspot.com/2010/09/dear-everyone-first-and-foremost-i-want.html"]his whole apology[/URL]. When most false prophets' predictions are seen as false, they ignore that they made it, or set a new date, etc. and keep on prophesying falsely. This guy is humbly apologizing for the failed prophecy/prediction, and for casting lots and encouraging others to cast lots. We (Christians) have got the Holy Spirit, we don't need to resort to a deck of cards or pulling numbers from a hat to determine the future, that's just inviting demons.
[QUOTE]What we can learn from this is that the casting of lots can be very risky and demonic interaction can be made. It wouldn't matter if it was from a deck of cards or tearing up pieces of paper and numbering them. The bottom line is demons can deceive very strongly by this.
...
I ask you all to forgive me. I felt it my duty to warn. I stuck my neck out way too far and got burned. I was deceived and I repent of all of these things, especially casting lots, and speaking on things I aught not. I never claimed to be a prophet, but I was convinced of this one thing, the Sept 3rd date and the signs were many and these signs were strong. What I can say is let's stick with the written word of God and watch out for prophecy or anything that gets too “charismatic.”[/QUOTE]
I don't agree with his idea that these quakes will still happen eventually in the way described, (sure, there'll be quakes, especially when the prophecies of Revelation come; just not exactly the way this false prophecy said) but he's taking a humble step back instead of pridefully trying to prove himself right, and for that he should be commended.

axn 2010-09-05 14:06

[QUOTE=lavalamp;228520]This is just sad:[/QUOTE]

Pathetic, is more like it. A classic case of notpology, if I've ever seen one.

lavalamp 2010-09-05 14:10

[QUOTE=Mini-Geek;228529]I don't think these few quotes do justice to [URL="http://howdeceivediwas.blogspot.com/2010/09/dear-everyone-first-and-foremost-i-want.html"]his whole apology[/URL].[/quote]I struck a balance between quoting a wall of text that no-one would read, and a few snippets to show the faulty reasoning and rationalisations of a confused mind. Notice that I did include the full URL for anyone who wished to read the whole thing.[QUOTE=Mini-Geek;228529]When most false prophets' predictions are seen as false, they ignore that they made it, or set a new date, etc. and keep on prophesying falsely. This guy is humbly apologizing for the failed prophecy/prediction, and for casting lots and encouraging others to cast lots.[/quote]OK, so he didn't just set a new date and claim that this was just a trial run or whatever, but he didn't exactly admit to telling complete fairy stories either. Instead he decided that he'd been tricked by frikken demons.[QUOTE=Mini-Geek;228529]sure, there'll be quakes, especially when the prophecies of Revelation come[/QUOTE]I ... :exclaim:

*backs away slowly*

ewmayer 2010-09-07 18:16

So, anyone here from NZ care to share their experience of the past weekend? Rob Giltrap, that means you...

[QUOTE=Mini-Geek;228529](at the risk of getting flamed...)

I don't think these few quotes do justice to [URL="http://howdeceivediwas.blogspot.com/2010/09/dear-everyone-first-and-foremost-i-want.html"]his whole apology[/URL]. When most false prophets' predictions are seen as false, they ignore that they made it, or set a new date, etc. and keep on prophesying falsely. This guy is humbly apologizing for the failed prophecy/prediction[/QUOTE]

Puh-leeze - The guy is giving a lame non-apology of the "I apologize for allowing myself to be hoodwinked by Satan and his evil minions" type. What is really required is "I apologize for being a delusional bunk-spewing moron, I refuse to weasel out of responsibility by trying to blame Satan or other evil supernatural actors, and I shall both try to make recompense to anyone who suffered material or emotional harm as a result of my actions, and STFU forever and anon when it comes to prophesying."

CRGreathouse 2010-09-09 16:40

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;228336]7.4 in New Zealand
[url]http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100903/ap_on_re_as/as_new_zealand_earthquake[/url][/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=frmky;228380]Right date, wrong place. :no:[/QUOTE]

There are about 15-20 earthquakes worldwide of magnitude 7.0 to 7.5. The chance that one would happen somewhere in the world on November 2010 is 71% to 82% using the Poisson model. The odds increase slightly if we include the chance of larger earthquakes.

Uncwilly 2010-09-09 17:50

[QUOTE=CRGreathouse;229177]There are about 15-20 earthquakes worldwide of magnitude 7.0 to 7.5.[/QUOTE]Is that total over recorded history?
:orly owl:

cheesehead 2010-09-09 18:02

[quote=CRGreathouse;229177]There are about 15-20 earthquakes worldwide of magnitude 7.0 to 7.5.[/quote]... per year.

CRGreathouse 2010-09-09 18:06

[QUOTE=cheesehead;229187]... per year.[/QUOTE]

Right. Sorry, this was wrongly deleted while I changed my original post around.

The point is that there are lots of earthquakes every year, and a 7.4-ish magnitude earthquake is more likely to happen than not in any given month.

Uncwilly 2010-09-27 21:18

1 Attachment(s)
3 days to go.........
[attach]5735[/attach]

Uncwilly 2010-09-30 06:11

1 day to go.


7.2 complex event in Indonesia.

Uncwilly 2010-10-01 19:44

Y2010 no earthquake from 9^1 to 9^30, USA:CA
:ouch:



maybe it is time to unsticky this.

davieddy 2010-10-01 20:45

I can't say the earth moved for me :(

David

Rhyled 2010-10-02 01:35

Why did this topic deserve a sticky?
 
Another prophecy bites the dust.

We're good through Dec 2012

Uncwilly 2010-10-21 23:25

6.7 in the Gulf of California @ Thursday, October 21, 2010 at 11:53:14 AM at epicenter

That was ~[SUP][SIZE="1"]1[/SIZE][/SUP]/[SUB][SIZE="1"]2[/SIZE][/SUB] hour after the State of California had their annual EQ drill.

ewmayer 2011-02-23 02:26

M6.3 Quake Devastates Christchurch, NZ
 
[url=http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/asia/23zealand.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=world]Scores Killed in New Zeakand Quake[/url]
[quote]Rescue workers spent a cold, rainy night pulling survivors from the wreckage caused by a powerful earthquake that struck Christchurch, New Zealand’s second largest city, early Tuesday afternoon, killing at least 75 people.
Some emerged unscathed from the rubble, while emergency workers had to amputate the limbs of others who were trapped, the city’s police superintendent, Russell Gibson, told Radio New Zealand on Wednesday morning.

Officials said Wednesday that at least 75 people had been killed, although only 55 had been identified. The authorities have repeatedly warned that the final death toll could be significantly higher.

Several buildings were demolished when the 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck Christchurch, a graceful 19th-century city of nearly 400,000 people, during the busy weekday lunch hour.

Two large office towers, the Pyne Gould building and the Canterbury Television headquarters, virtually collapsed. Some cars and buses were smashed by falling debris.

“We’ve been pulling 20 or 30 people out of those buildings right throughout the night,” Superintendent Gibson said.

But many people did not survive, and Superintendent Gibson said the streets were littered with bodies. [/quote]

[i]The Australian[/i] is running a special section on the quake:

[url]http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/christchurch-earthquake[/url]

The quake was not massively strong in terms of Richter magnitude, but very shallow and directly beneath a population center which has many historic masonry buildings ... bad combination. Interestingly, several of the notable building collapses were modern office towers.

science_man_88 2011-02-23 14:07

[QUOTE=ewmayer;253465][url=http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/asia/23zealand.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=world]Scores Killed in New Zeakand Quake[/url]


[i]The Australian[/i] is running a special section on the quake:

[url]http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/christchurch-earthquake[/url]

The quake was not massively strong in terms of Richter magnitude, but very shallow and directly beneath a population center which has many historic masonry buildings ... bad combination. Interestingly, several of the notable building collapses were modern office towers.[/QUOTE]

I think this and the quake felt after the eruption in the Philippines are related they are of similar magnitude at last check the Philippine eruption caused a 6.0 I think.

99.94 2011-02-25 23:02

[QUOTE=science_man_88;253508]I think this and the quake felt after the eruption in the Philippines are related they are of similar magnitude at last check the Philippine eruption caused a 6.0 I think.[/QUOTE]
Apparently not. There seems to be a view that the explanation lies elsewhere.
[url]http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/despicable-website-blames-christchurch-quake-on-gay-community-20110224-1b68y.html[/url]

science_man_88 2011-02-26 00:21

[QUOTE=99.94;253758]Apparently not. There seems to be a view that the explanation lies elsewhere.
[url]http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/despicable-website-blames-christchurch-quake-on-gay-community-20110224-1b68y.html[/url][/QUOTE]

I seriously doubt there idea but you never know.

ewmayer 2011-02-26 00:28

[QUOTE=99.94;253758]Apparently not. There seems to be a view that the explanation lies elsewhere.
[url]http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/despicable-website-blames-christchurch-quake-on-gay-community-20110224-1b68y.html[/url][/QUOTE]

Since no natural disasters ever have ever occured in gay-intolerant countries, there may be something to this...

But just to be on the safe side, NZers should ban gays, jews, lapsed catholics sex outside of marriage, interracial relations, interspecies dating (including both cats and dogs sleeping together and the vile perversion that is "sheep husbandry"), and teaching of non-bible-based science. Better to be safe than sorry, I say.

Uncwilly 2011-03-11 07:15

8.9 in Japan.

msft 2011-03-11 08:53

[QUOTE=Uncwilly;254876]8.9 in Japan.[/QUOTE]
Biggest in My Life.

But mprime continue mission.:smile:

only_human 2011-03-11 12:49

I am sure many countries and people share deep concerns and sympathy/ My heart goes out to you Japan.

[URL="http://japan.person-finder.appspot.com/"]http://japan.person-finder.appspot.com/[/URL]

I found the above link from this Engaged.com English write-up on it:
[URL="http://www.engadget.com/2011/03/11/google-reacts-to-japanese-tsunami-with-a-person-finder-tool/"]Google reacts to Japanese tsunami with a Person Finder tool[/URL]

davieddy 2011-03-11 14:09

From a previous thread...
 
...entitled "Health and Safety gone Mad":

@ Cheesehead:
I'm sure those buoys were a lot of use in predicting the tsunami.

David

science_man_88 2011-03-11 14:10

[QUOTE=msft;254885]Biggest in My Life.

But mprime continue mission.:smile:[/QUOTE]

Yeah well it's supposedly the biggest in records in japan, created a whirlpool at the epicenter, and I think last death toll I heard was x00's already. It's also one of the biggest for the world.

ewmayer 2011-03-11 19:01

More on the Japan quake:

[url=http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110311/ap_on_re_as/as_japan_earthquake]Hundreds killed in tsunami after 8.9 Japan quake[/url]
[quote] A ferocious tsunami spawned by one of the largest earthquakes on record slammed Japan's eastern coast Friday, killing hundreds of people as it swept away ships, cars and homes while widespread fires burned out of control.

Hours later, the tsunami hit Hawaii but did not cause major damage. Warnings blanketed the Pacific, putting areas on alert as far away as South America, Canada, Alaska and the entire U.S. West coast. In northeastern Japan, the area around a nuclear power plant was evacuated after the reactor's cooling system failed.

Police said 200 to 300 bodies were found in the northeastern coastal city of Sendai, the city in Miyagi prefecture, or state, closest to the epicenter. Another 137 were confirmed killed, with 531 people missing. Police also said 627 people were injured.

The magnitude-8.9 offshore quake unleashed a 23-foot (seven-meter) tsunami and was followed for hours by more than 50 aftershocks, many of them of more than magnitude 6.0.

Dozens of cities and villages along a 1,300-mile (2,100-kilometer) stretch of coastline were shaken by violent tremors that reached as far away as Tokyo, hundreds of miles (kilometers) from the epicenter. A large section of Kesennuma, a town of 70,000 people in Miyagi, burned furiously into the night with no apparent hope of being extinguished, public broadcaster NHK said. [/quote]

Not sure if it's helpful to anthropomorphize a physical phenomenon like a tsunami with terms like "ferocious" ... how about simply "large", "powerful", or even "devastating"?

Mish's economics blog (which I refer to frequently in the MET20**K threads in Soapbox) has a nice [url=http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/videos-images-news-of-japan-earthquake.html]roundup of story, video and photo-gallery links[/url] of the devastation on the Japanese coastal areas hit by the tsunami.

science_man_88 2011-03-11 20:04

[QUOTE=ewmayer;254929]More on the Japan quake:

[url=http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110311/ap_on_re_as/as_japan_earthquake]Hundreds killed in tsunami after 8.9 Japan quake[/url]


Not sure if it's helpful to anthropomorphize a physical phenomenon like a tsunami with terms like "ferocious" ... how about simply "large", "powerful", or even "devastating"?

Mish's economics blog (which I refer to frequently in the MET20**K threads in Soapbox) has a nice [url=http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/videos-images-news-of-japan-earthquake.html]roundup of story, video and photo-gallery links[/url] of the devastation on the Japanese coastal areas hit by the tsunami.[/QUOTE]

latest I heard is that this "may have" triggered a "separate" earthquake of over magnitude 6.

cheesehead 2011-03-11 23:04

[QUOTE=davieddy;254907]...entitled "Health and Safety gone Mad":

@ Cheesehead:
I'm sure those buoys were a lot of use in predicting the tsunami.

David[/QUOTE]From [url]http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080123182522.htm[/url]

[quote]... Earthquake magnitude is not always a reliable indicator of tsunami potential, however. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both had almost the same magnitude from initial estimates. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms have negative societal and economic effects.[/quote]

science_man_88 2011-03-12 21:11

disasters that seem to have happened and possible events further on:

1) earthquake
2)tsunami
3)nuclear plant
4) possible snow before the end of the week (could target weak buildings for collapse)

science_man_88 2011-03-13 17:33

I came up with a longer list for a yahoo article and japan quake has been upgraded to a 9.0 according to CTV and a 76% chance of a new 7.0 within 3 days.

ewmayer 2011-03-14 01:51

Latest Japan quake update
 
[url=http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/earthquake-moves-japan-eight-feet.html]Earthquake Moves Japan Eight Feet, Shifting Earth's Axis; Entire Villages Vanish Under Wall of Water; Nuclear Crisis Expands to 2nd Reactor[/url]
[quote]Scientists upgraded the devastating earthquake that struck Japan from 8.8 or 8.9 to 9.0 on the Richter Scale. That may not sound like much but the scale is logarithmic effectively doubling the estimated size of the quake.

Regardless of what the number is, the quake was devastating enough to move the main island of Japan 8 feet while shifting the earth on its axis [by approximately 4 inches]. Entire villages in Northern Japan are missing, swept away by the resultant tsunamis.

Meanwhile Japanese authorities struggling with additional meltdowns have flooded a second reactor with seawater hoping to cool the plant. This is a desperate action that will probably ruin both facilities.[/quote]

Karl Denninger has a nice post detailing the likely occurrences and dangers at the damaged nuclear reactors, the main one of which is 40 years old - he makes the point [which I heartily agree with] that rather than "spelling the death knell for nuclear power", this should instead serve as the impetus for a long-term coordinated global shift to molten-salt Thorium reactor technology, which has been proven for 50 years, has virtually no weapons-proliferative potential, uses a much wider variety of fuel than enriched-Uranium/Plutonium-based reactor technology, can burn long-lived waste resulting from the latter into hot-but-quickly-decaying waste (which only needs to be sequestered for on the order of centuries), and - most importantly - is 100% self-shutting-down in a loss-of-power or catastrophic-damage scenario such as occurred in Japan:

[url=http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=182139]On the Japanese Quake and Tsunami[/url]
[quote]Everyone's attention is focused on the nuclear power plants in Japan; the nation gets about 30% of its electricity from nuclear power. Originally we were told that there was only one plant with a cooling problem; that has since expanded to most of the plants that were operating at the time.

A primer for those who are not familiar with nuclear power in general may be helpful. The plants in question are "BWR" plants, or "Boiling Water Reactors." Fuel comprising a mixture that contains Uranium-235 and/or Plutonium-239 are placed into rods with a zirconium cladding. These are arranged inside a high-pressure container. Hydraulically-controlled rods that contain material that absorbs neutrons are placed in the core as well. The pressure vessel is filled with ordinary water...[/quote]

And the NYT on the Japanese nuclear industry’s troubled history:

[url=http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/13/world/asia/13nuclear-industry.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=world]Crisis Underscores Fears About Safety of Nuclear Energy[/url]
[quote]The official announcement that two reactors at an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant could be suffering meltdowns underscores the Japanese nuclear industry’s troubled history, and years of grass-roots objections from a people uniquely sensitive to the ravages of nuclear destruction.

The unfolding crisis at the two reactors, both at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, feeds into a resurgence of doubts about nuclear energy’s safety — even as it has gained credence as a source of clean energy in a time of mounting concerns about the environmental and public health tolls of fossil fuels.

The crisis stems from failures of the cooling systems at the reactors at the 40-year-old Fukushima Daiichi plant. At a nearby nuclear plant, Daini, three more reactors lost their cooling systems, and Japanese officials were scrambling Sunday to determine whether the systems could be revived or would also need injections of cooling seawater.

Critics of nuclear energy have long questioned the viability of nuclear power in earthquake-prone regions like Japan. Reactors have been designed with such concerns in mind, but preliminary assessments of the Fukushima Daiichi accidents suggested that too little attention was paid to the threat of tsunami. It appeared that the reactors withstood the powerful earthquake, but the ocean waves damaged generators and backup systems, harming the ability to cool the reactors. [/quote]

ewmayer 2011-03-16 15:35

Karl Denninger of [i]The Market Ticker[/i] finance/economics blog has an update on the escalating reactor situation in Japan:

[url=http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=182380] The Clock Is Running (Japan Update 3/16)[/url]
[quote]The authorities in Japan appear to be losing control of the situation at their crippled nuclear plant.

We know serious core-melt incidents have occurred in three of the reactors (1-3.) These are bad and have economically destroyed the reactors, but none of that news is new, and my assessment of the issues and risks are unchanged on this basis. Core melts, even catastrophic ones (and the two percentages of presumed damaged rods at the plants in question I've seen quoted fall into that category) are not sufficient to result in a generalized catastrophe in the environment.

However, it appears that there's little evidence that TEPCO and other emergency responders are making any sort of progress in getting water feed back to the fuel pools stored near the reactors. That's an entirely different situation, and has now, in my opinion, escalated to an "all hands on deck" event.

The puzzling factor for the last couple of days has been that there have been no real response in getting water sources to the buildings - specifically, to those fuel pools. There is no pressure (beyond the lift to the height of the pool) required to feed these as they're open pools but the ability to replace water that boils off is absolutely essential in the absence of the normal heat exchange mechanism.

Actual facts on the ground have been difficult to come by, but one news flash came across late last night that implied what may be going on: TEPCO was reported to be deploying a maximum effort in building (!) a road to get fire engines to the plant.

Remember, this area got hit by a tsunami. That's bad. Apparently, it is much worse in terms of access to the plant that has been let on. While authorities have not said this, the destruction of three of the four fire engines at the plant by the explosion in Building 3 may have destroyed three of the only four fire engines that could reach the plant.

Rescue and recovery are important. But unless the Japanese are prepared to abandon a 25-mile or so diameter area of land around this plant permanently (which incidentally means abandoning not only the stricken four units but six more that are undamaged and will be needed for recovery of the nation from this disaster they need to get this situation under control - right now.

Reports yesterday of radiation rate spikes at the plant were very troubling. If you remember my missive from yesterday I said that the "gold standard" for a reason to get very nervous as to forward expectations were lethal-level radiation readings at the plant. We're now seeing them, albeit on an intermittent basis. Thus far it appears they're related to the release of steam from the shut down but hot reactors, specifically unit #3.

This will not be the case for a whole lot longer, however, if there is not meaningful progress on getting whatever infrastructure is necessary to provide water to the fuel pools restored and secured. Again, this is a matter of being able to provide water in volume, but there is no pressure requirement (other than the pressure necessary to lift the water to the height where the pool is) as there is with providing a water feed into a containment building or primary reactor pressure vessel.

I give this situation about another 48 hours before it becomes essentially impossible to manage. At this point it is likely that some people will have to sacrifice themselves intentionally in order to get the water feeds that are necessary in place and operating. That number may be significant and the longer it takes before this task is accomplished the higher the count is going to go.[/quote]

[b]Japan suspends work at stricken nuclear plant | Histoyr of GE's Troubled Mark 1 Reactor Design[/b]
Mish reports bad news [As of ~midnight last night US Eastern time]

[url=http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/surrender-japan-suspends-work-at.html]Surrender: Japan suspends work at stricken nuclear plant[/url]
[quote]It is exceptionally difficult to keep up with news that changes by the minute.

No sooner than I do a post regarding 50 Brave Heroes are the Only Remaining Defense at the Daiichi Nuclear Power Station than comes the grim news of surrender.

Please consider Japan suspends work at stricken nuclear plant
[i]
Japan suspended operations to keep its stricken nuclear plant from melting down Wednesday after surging radiation made it too dangerous to stay.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said the workers dousing the reactors in a frantic effort to cool them needed to withdraw.

"The workers cannot carry out even minimal work at the plant now," Edano said. "Because of the radiation risk we are on standby," he said.

Edano said the government expects to ask the U.S. military for help. He did not elaborate. He said the government is still considering whether and how to take up the various offers of help from other countries.

The surge in radiation was apparently the result of a Tuesday explosion in the complex's Unit 4 reactor, according to officials with Japan's nuclear safety agency. That blast is thought to have damaged the reactor's suppression chamber, a water-filled pipe outside the nuclear core that is part of the emergency cooling system[/i].[/quote]
[i]My Comment:[/i] There are some interesting notes about GE`s troubled Mark 1 reactor design (used in many Japanese plants, most notably the ones in question) in the full article. Note that the design flaws in the 70s-vintage Mark 1 appear not directly related to Japan reactor crisis, except in the sense the one ex-GEer cites: "...you can't say the Fukushima situation is a direct result of the Mark 1 containment. It is a direct result of the earthquake, tsunami and the fact the Mark 1 containment is less forgiving than some of the other reactor versions."

But "Less forgiving" is precisely the kind of phrase which should *not* apply to a reactor built in a highly active earthquake/tsunami zone.


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