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Uncwilly 2004-06-03 22:01

When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?
When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?

We will assume that it is a Mersenne and that the date will be either the date of the report through PrimeNet or of the e-mail to George by a non-PrimeNet searcher.

Voters are encouraged to talk about their votes and reasons.

jeff8765 2004-06-03 22:12

My guess is first half of 2006. I think it will come then because I don't think that a 10,000,000 digit prime will be discovered until the "normal" testers begin testing those numbers. Remember that although we have made a lot of progress testing 33M numbers the vast majority of our computing power is doing normal first time tests. Based at the current rate of about 5,000,000/year we should get past 33M in the first half of 2006. Then I was optimistic, guessing that we would find a prime there soon after we began testing there in earnest.

Uncwilly 2004-06-04 02:01

40 views, 9 votes. so far a baby bell curve.

Uncwilly 2004-06-04 02:52

Feb 13, 2005 7:42 am GMT

Prime Monster will find it.

Ivan Semenov 2004-06-04 04:21

Can't see the leader :unsure:

ET_ 2004-06-04 15:54

I noticed two things:

1 - People is working hard on pre-factoring
2 - Sierpinski and Riesel prime numbers are rapidly growing in size

I guess that by the first half of 2005 we'll have our 10,000,000 digits prime.


lycorn 2004-06-04 19:00

I voted for "2nd half of 2006 or later", because in fact LL leading edge is likely to reach 33M in 1H2006, but there is no guarantee whatsoever that we´ll have a 10M digit prime right there. That´s only where it begins to be possible to find them. So I wouldn´t be surprised if we had to wait until 2007. Unless some non-GIMPSter spoils the party and finds a 10M digit non-Mersenne prime before we find a Mersenne...

Uncwilly 2004-09-15 20:45


edorajh 2004-09-16 11:36

I vote "[i]Second half of 2005".[/i] We will see... :wink:

Uncwilly 2005-02-04 00:06


At least 2 people were wrong.

cheesehead 2005-02-05 06:29

My record on publicly-posted predictions is just [i]awful[/i] -- really poor. So I'm voting "Second half of 2006 or later" for the good of the cause ...

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